The AI Trade is Dead, OpenAI and Anthropic undershot the moon, pressure private equity

u/sfw_supdood · Reddit — r/wallstreetbets · August 24, 2026 at 21:06 · ⬆ 46 pts · 💬 73 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Summary

  • Author declares the AI trade dead: LLM token prices are too high, businesses are reverting to subscriptions, and open-source models undermine OpenAI/Anthropic economics.
  • Thesis: massive AI compute capex will never be repaid, forcing private equity and tech giants to offload shares, leading to a market grind lower and eventual crash.
  • Positions: late 2027 puts on SNDK, NVDA, PLTR, TQQQ, ORCL; also flags NBIS, MU, and CRWV as possible shorts.
  • Quality assessment: Speculation/noise — no position screenshot, no quantitative data, and the argument relies on anecdotal industry sentiment.
Score 46
Comments 73
Upvote % 70%
Full Post Text
Ideas
u/sfw_supdood Reddit r/wallstreetbets
Author argues LLM compute demand will not pay back AI capex, hitting NVDA’s core growth story. If AI infrastructure spending stalls, NVDA revenue expectations collapse; long-dated puts profit. Bearish bet on AI capex unwind using late 2027 puts. AI spending can persist via government/PE support; top comment says AI stocks may double.
u/sfw_supdood Reddit r/wallstreetbets
Author ties OpenAI/Anthropic cloud needs to ORCL’s heavy AI infrastructure spending. If AI model demand disappoints, ORCL is left holding costly compute capacity. Long-dated puts express a bearish view on AI cloud capex. Oracle has committed cloud contracts; enterprise demand may remain resilient.
u/sfw_supdood Reddit r/wallstreetbets
Author implies AI hype-driven software names like PLTR are overvalued if LLM monetization stalls. A de-rating of AI growth expectations would hit PLTR’s valuation hard. Bearish on AI narrative stocks with long-dated puts. Government/defense contracts provide a sticky revenue base for PLTR.
u/sfw_supdood Reddit r/wallstreetbets
Author expects the overall market to trade sideways or down as AI names drag on indices. Puts on TQQQ allow a leveraged bearish bet on Nasdaq downside without single-name risk. Use TQQQ puts to play the broader AI-led market decline. The Fed/money printer can keep markets melting up; leverage can squeeze shorts.
u/sfw_supdood Reddit r/wallstreetbets
Author includes SNDK as part of AI hardware/memory exposure that may face demand destruction. If AI compute buildout slows, memory/storage demand weakens, hurting SNDK. Long-dated puts on SNDK are a bearish bet on fading AI hardware demand. Memory cycle can recover on supply discipline, invalidating the short.
More from Reddit — r/wallstreetbets

This Reddit post, published August 24, 2026, features u/sfw_supdood discussing NVDA, ORCL, PLTR, TQQQ, SNDK. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/sfw_supdood  · Tickers: NVDA, ORCL, PLTR, TQQQ, SNDK