I will delete my account if Nike stock closes below $40 today. News flash: won’t happen

lies_are_comforting · 2026-08-17T14:49:23+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - Author is long 6,000 NKE shares at $41 and argues $40 is strong support, calling the stock the “deal of the century.” - Thesis: Nike’s problems are already priced in after the stock fell from $80+, and an EPS beat plus new CFO should support a rebound to $80. - Quality assessment: High-conviction speculation with some price/support framing, but not well-researched DD; heavily reliant on chart levels and hope. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === NKE - LONG | confidence: 0.80 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/lies_are_comforting Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Author holds 6,000 shares at $41; cites $40 support, EPS beat ($0.20 vs $0.11), and new CFO as catalysts. 2. THE BRIDGE: If bad news is priced in after a ~50% drawdown, any positive turnaround signal could trigger a re-rating. 3. THE VERDICT: Long NKE targeting $80 within the next year. 4. RISKS: A daily close below $40 invalidates the support thesis; weak growth, margin pressure, and lowered guidance could keep pushing it lower. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Author long 6000 shares avg $41 - Sees $40 as strong support - Expectations low after 50% drawdown - Earnings beat + new CFO catalysts - Risk: $40 break invalidates thesis === COMMENTS SUMMARY === Community sentiment is heavily skeptical: the stock was already showing below $40 on screens, and commenters labeled the author a bagholder. Counter-arguments include Nike’s deteriorating product appeal, four straight years of lowered earnings outlook, still-high valuation, and the claim that $40 is not actually proven support. Overall, the comment section treats the post as cope rather than a legitimate trade setup.

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Author is long 6,000 NKE shares at $41 and argues $40 is strong support, calling the stock the “deal of the century.”
Thesis: Nike’s problems are already priced in after the stock fell from $80+, and an EPS beat plus new CFO should support a rebound to $80.
Quality assessment: High-conviction speculation with some price/support framing, but not well-researched DD; heavily reliant on chart levels and hope.

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u/lies_are_comforting Reddit r/wallstreetbets

Author holds 6,000 shares at $41; cites $40 support, EPS beat ($0.20 vs $0.11), and new CFO as catalysts. If bad news is priced in after a ~50% drawdown, any positive turnaround signal could trigger a re-rating. Long NKE targeting $80 within the next year. A daily close below $40 invalidates the support thesis; weak growth, margin pressure, and lowered guidance could keep pushing it lower.

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