u/k_ristovski ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· August 14, 2026 at 22:50
· ⬆ 18 pts
· 💬 30 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
Bearish deep dive on The Trade Desk (TTD), arguing the stock is still overvalued despite being down ~90%.
Author identifies competition from Google/Amazon, CFO instability, poor buyback efficiency, no moat, and lack of operating leverage as core problems.
Sets a fair value of $11/share, implying significant downside from current levels.
Quality assessment: Well-researched bearish DD with specific business-level arguments, but relies heavily on qualitative judgments and forward assumptions.
Score18
Comments30
Upvote %85%
▶ Full Post Text
I saw many TTD posts where the entire comparison is based on P/E or P/FCF ratios, without taking a deeper look into the business. That's what I did.
TLDR:
\- Still overvalued
\- Google/Amazon became their competitors, and the pressure on revenue/margin will continue
\- Had 4 CFOs in 13 months
\- Terrible at capital allocation (used $2.5b on buybacks to reduce share count by 4%)
\- No moat
\- No operating leverage
Full deep dive (\~6 minutes reading time) for those interested: [https://thefinancecorner.substack.com/p/the-trade-desk-down-90-still-not](https://thefinancecorner.substack.com/p/the-trade-desk-down-90-still-not)
Fair value: $11/share
Looking forward to reading your feedback!
Author values TTD at $11/share due to ongoing competitive pressure from Google/Amazon, CFO churn, and poor capital allocation ($2.5B buybacks reduced share count only 4%). If the market continues to re-rate TTD toward fundamental value, the stock offers a short opportunity despite the prior 90% decline. The trade is a bearish bet that TTD remains structurally challenged and should not be bought merely because it looks cheap on trailing multiples. Ad-tech market could stabilize, revenue/margin pressure could ease, or a new CFO/strategy pivot could restore confidence and drive a sharp rebound.
This Reddit post, published August 14, 2026,
features u/k_ristovski
discussing TTD.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.