u/k_ristovski

$31.5b market cap minus $0.9b cash, $6.8b marketable securities, and $6.4b investments leaves ~$17.4b for the core Zoom business. If the Anthropic stake is worth ~$6b and core FCF remains above $1.1b, Zoom's underlying business may be undervalued. Long Zoom as a value play on the cheap core business plus hidden AI-asset upside. Anthropic IPO valuation may not hold; Zoom's growth could decelerate; SBC-adjusted FCF may overstate true cash generation.

Author values TTD at $11/share due to ongoing competitive pressure from Google/Amazon, CFO churn, and poor capital allocation ($2.5B buybacks reduced share count only 4%). If the market continues to re-rate TTD toward fundamental value, the stock offers a short opportunity despite the prior 90% decline. The trade is a bearish bet that TTD remains structurally challenged and should not be bought merely because it looks cheap on trailing multiples. Ad-tech market could stabilize, revenue/margin pressure could ease, or a new CFO/strategy pivot could restore confidence and drive a sharp rebound.

Nike is down ~75%, insiders are buying, and a proven insider CEO is attempting to repair the brand and margins. If management can stabilize revenue and restore a 10%+ operating margin, the current pessimistic base creates room for a multi-year re-rating. A cautious long/watch idea driven by insider signals and a potential operational turnaround, not by current financial strength. Continued share loss to Hoka/On, brand moat erosion, and a market that still sees NKE as expensive (~25 fwd P/E) with weak FCF yield.

Base44’s ARR surged from $10M to $160M in one year; management repurchased 1/3 of the company, signaling strong conviction. The market may be mispricing Wix as a legacy web builder while ignoring the hidden value of Base44 and operating profit potential. If the author’s estimates hold and AI disruption is overblown, Wix offers a deep-value turnaround with a margin of safety. AI-driven low-code/no-code competition (vibe coding), poor user experience driving churn, unprofitable status, and macro headwinds hurting SMB spending.

Intuit’s share price has fallen over 50% YTD, yet the author estimates fair value at $387 — a ~30% upside from $276. The market is mispricing Intuit due to fear of disruption, but the author argues its tax and financial software moat is durable and enhanced by agentic AI. Buying Intuit at current levels offers a margin of safety with a clear catalyst as sentiment recovers and AI adoption materializes. Regulatory changes in tax filing, faster disruption from competitors (e.g., AI-native startups), or macro slowdown affecting small business spending.