Any value AI stocks left?

thefrogmeister23 · 2026-08-05T03:39:34+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - Author is rotating cash into AI-related names after a strong three-day rally, seeking “value” within AI via low forward P/E ratios and Morningstar fair value estimates. - Proposed basket: TSM, NVDA, AVGO, HPE, TCEHY, BABA — all framed as undervalued relative to analyst fair value. - Quality assessment: Light DD based on valuation multiples and fair-value targets; more opportunistic basket-building than deep fundamental analysis. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === Speaker: u/thefrogmeister23 TSM - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.70 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: TSM at $419 trades at 18.64x forward earnings vs Morningstar fair value of $530. 2. THE BRIDGE: TSM is the dominant AI/advanced semiconductor foundry, giving durable exposure to AI compute demand. 3. THE VERDICT: Reasonably valued core AI pick with tangible upside to fair value. 4. RISKS: Taiwan geopolitical risk, semiconductor cycle downturn, or capex overbuild. Timeframe: long-term Key Points: - 18.6x fwd PE is reasonable for AI leader - Morningstar implies ~26% upside - Durable moat in advanced chip manufacturing - Geopolitical risk remains key overhang - Strong pick for long-term AI basket NVDA - LONG | confidence: 0.70 | sentiment: +0.70 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: NVDA at $215 trades at 21.22x forward earnings vs Morningstar fair value of $280. 2. THE BRIDGE: AI spending is still accelerating, and NVDA remains the primary beneficiary of GPU/datacenter demand. 3. THE VERDICT: Rare combination of growth and reasonable forward multiple for the AI leader. 4. RISKS: AI capex digestion, competition, or valuation compression if growth slows. Timeframe: medium-term / long-term Key Points: - 21x fwd PE is not extreme for NVDA - Morningstar fair value implies ~30% upside - Core AI infrastructure bellwether - High expectations leave little room for error - Momentum could reverse if AI spend slows AVGO - LONG | confidence: 0.70 | sentiment: +0.65 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: AVGO at $420 trades at

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Author is rotating cash into AI-related names after a strong three-day rally, seeking “value” within AI via low forward P/E ratios and Morningstar fair value estimates.
Proposed basket: TSM, NVDA, AVGO, HPE, TCEHY, BABA — all framed as undervalued relative to analyst fair value.
Quality assessment: Light DD based on valuation multiples and fair-value targets; more opportunistic basket-building than deep fundamental analysis.

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