I screened 3,053 companies with 10 years of 10-Ks. 54 of them spent $1B+ on buybacks and still ended the decade with more shares outstanding.

u/JohnnyDrama611 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · August 04, 2026 at 12:22 · ⬆ 17 pts · 💬 13 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Summary

  • The author screened 10 years of 10-K filings to identify companies that spent over $1 billion on stock buybacks but still diluted shareholders.
  • The thesis is that massive stock-based compensation (SBC) often outpaces buyback programs, rendering the buybacks ineffective at returning value to shareholders.
  • High-quality, data-driven DD based on historical cash flow statements and share count analysis.
Score 17
Comments 13
Upvote % 96%
Full Post Text
Ideas
u/JohnnyDrama611 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Amazon spent $6B on buybacks over 10 years but issued $109.2B in stock-based compensation. This massive SBC issuance completely negates the buyback, resulting in a 12.4% increase in diluted shares. Avoid the stock from a capital return perspective, as buybacks are merely masking heavy shareholder dilution. Amazon's core business growth and cash flow generation could outpace the negative effects of dilution.
u/JohnnyDrama611 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Salesforce spent $11.6B on buybacks but issued $17.1B in stock-based compensation over the decade. The aggressive use of SBC has led to a massive 57.7% increase in outstanding shares despite billions spent on buybacks. Avoid due to severe shareholder dilution masked by headline buyback figures. Strong enterprise software demand and margin expansion could drive the stock price up regardless of dilution.
More from Reddit — r/ValueInvesting

This Reddit post, published August 04, 2026, features u/JohnnyDrama611 discussing AMZN, CRM. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/JohnnyDrama611  · Tickers: AMZN, CRM