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Nextpower is the number one solar tracker maker in the world. It holds \~55% share in the US and \~30% globally, and has been number one for eleven years running. It has $1.2B in cash, no debt, and $5.8B of signed orders in the book.
It's been beaten down 45% from its peak and has the most attractive entry point it has had in a long time.
\## 1. Five years of financials
| Metric | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,458M | $1,902M | $2,500M | $2,959M | $3,559M |
| Gross margin | 10.6% | 15.3% | 27.8% | 34.4% | 33.3% |
| Operating margin | 5.4% | 8.9% | 18.6% | 21.8% | 19.9% |
| Net income | $51M | $1M | $306M | $509M | $586M |
Revenue grew 25% a year. Profit went from $51M to $586M. Gross margin went up by more than 22 points and stayed there.
The most recent quarter kept it going, though it pushed the stock down 8% further:
\- Revenue $935M, a record, up 8%
\- Adjusted gross margin 36.6%, another record
\- Free cash flow $105M, up 50%
\- Guidance raised on every single line
\## 2. Debt (there is none)
\- \*\*Cash:\*\* $1.21B
\- \*\*Debt:\*\* $0
\- \*\*Debt to equity:\*\* 0.02
\- \*\*Current ratio:\*\* 2.7x
Enterprise value is $12.47B against a $13.63B market cap. You are getting $1.16B of cash thrown in.
Nothing forces Nextpower to do anything. No refinancing. No dilution. They can spend, they can build, they can buy back, etc. They also have a $500M buyback approved and untouched while the stock sits 45% off its high.
\## 3. Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 15.9x |
| Forward P/E, cash stripped out | 14.5x |
| PEG | 1.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.7x |
| EV to signed backlog | 2.1x |
| Return on invested capital | 25.0% |
| Return on equity | 27.2% |
So the company is earning 25% on its capital, with no debt, growing 23% a year, trading at 15.9x next year's profit.
\## 4. Growth
Backlog is $5.5B, plus another $300M from the storage deal. That is $5.8B of signed contracts with deposits paid, named sites, and ship dates, against $3.6B of yearly revenue.
A year and some change ago they bought an eBOS product line, and it now does over $100M a year with record orders every quarter. Non-tracker sales are already 14% of revenue and growing faster than the core.
In the last three months they bought a power conversion business, a battery storage business, and a European mounting business. Given that management has successfully integrated the eBOS acquisition, these should blend in seamlessly too. Worth noting: 14 consecutive quarters of earnings beats, with not a single miss.
\## 5. Market
This is the part that I believe has not been priced in at all. Nextpower now sells into three markets:
| Market | 2026 size | 2033 size | Growth rate | Nextpower share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar trackers | $10.3B | $42.2B | 22.4% | 30% |
| eBOS components | $12.6B | \~$26B | 11.3% | under 1% |
| Battery storage | $17.4B | $99.7B | 28.3% | under 1% |
| \*\*Total\*\* | \*\*$40.3B\*\* | \*\*\~$168B\*\* | \*\*\~23%\*\* | \*\*\~9%\*\* |
Three points:
\*\*The core alone gets you there.\*\* If Nextpower simply holds 30% tracker share and never gains an inch, tracker revenue alone is about $12.7B by 2033. That is three and a half times the entire company's revenue today.
\*\*eBOS is wide open.\*\* The share leaders are GameChange at 27.9%, Legrand at 20.3%, and CAB at 15%. Nextpower is not on the chart yet, and did $100M in its first year. Each point of share in that market is worth about $126M of revenue, sold to customers it already has.
\*\*Storage is the real opportunity.\*\* It's estimated to grow at 28.3% yearly to nearly $100B in market size. Nextpower bought its way in this month with a platform that already has 6 GWh deployed. At 15.9x forward earnings, you are paying nothing for that.
\## 6. Risks
Policy is the big one. Of the $233M in EBITDA last quarter, about $99M came from 45X tax credits and tariff recovery — call it 42% of quarterly profit that depends on government policy staying where it is. Guidance assumes it holds. If 45X or the foreign entity rules change, the earnings picture changes with them. This is the risk that matters most, though it's worth noting the 45X credit isn't just for the solar industry — it also covers the US critical minerals industry, something the Trump administration has been supportive of. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act largely preserved it.
This year's profit is flat. Adjusted EPS guidance is roughly $4.58 against $4.50 last year.
International is shrinking as well. Rest-of-world revenue has fallen four quarters in a row, from $265M to $160M. The US is carrying everything at 83% of sales.
\## Bottom line
All in all, you are paying 15.9x next year's earnings for the number one player in a market growing 22% a year, with $5.8B of signed orders, $1.2B of cash, no debt, 25% returns on capital, record margins last quarter, raised guidance, and two brand-new businesses at under 1% share in markets worth $126B combined by 2033.
The company spends under 2% of revenue on capital and funds all of it internally. It has a $500M buyback sitting unused while the stock trades 45% below its high.