Generational dead cat bounce...

"The U.S. and Israel are preparing to bombard Iranian energy-related targets as soon as this weekend, per CBS News." This war has to end very soon or markets are going significantly lower. Part of me thinks even these headlines are bluffs by trump to try to bring Iran to the table. Part of me refuses to imagine he will escalate here. He needs to fold or he is going to lose the mid terms and his presidency... But it appears that we may actually see escalation in the coming weeks... If this happens, I think it will be catastrophic for the market. It really all boils down to inflation. We saw a minor temper tantrum on wednesday in response to the fed staying on hold - of course this was sharply reversed on thursday as the market was lifted by renewed AI optimism. Treasury yields continue to march higher though and are now at multi decade highs. I believe that the entire premise for keeping rates on hold is based on resolution with Iran - this seemed somewhat plausible on wednesday when the decision was made... Now it seems much less plausible. Escalation now guarantees a hike in September and honestly, i think a 50 basis point hike would be fairly likely because at that point we would be playing catch up after having essentially made the bet that this thing would be resolved. The market will start pricing this in long before september. You just need to look at this chart [https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762) and you will see where the market is headed. Iran is not going to back down here... If we hit their energy infrastructure, they will 100% let loose on the infrastructure of all Gulf states... This could get incredibly ugly and assuming trump follows through, id expect crude to be well into the 90s if not higher when this is executed. Personally, going to see what happens this weekend and consider liquidating a lot of my longs on Monday.