=== SUMMARY ===
- The author argues that Fubo is deeply undervalued (0.16x sales, ~$140/subscriber vs peers $250–$400) and that a progressive Disney reimbursement structure for Hulu + Live TV will dramatically improve earnings.
- They highlight a likely earnings beat or guidance raise (first-half EBITDA already near full-year guidance) and a new CEO with strong streaming experience, with short interest at 24.8% creating potential for a squeeze.
- The post is high-quality, well-researched DD with specific financial data, valuation math, and a disclosed personal position, making it credible and actionable.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BULLISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
FUBO - LONG | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: +0.70
Speaker: u/HLMEHU
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: Fubo trades at 0.16x sales; Disney reimbursement reduces annual cost shortfall by ~$188M by 2028, and H1 EBITDA already hit $79M vs full-year guide of $80–$100M.
2. THE BRIDGE: The combination of a low valuation floor, imminent cost improvements, and high short interest (24.8% of float) creates asymmetric upside on any positive earnings catalyst.
3. THE VERDICT: Long Fubo as a deep-value, catalyst-driven play — the market has not priced in the margin expansion from the Disney deal or the likely guidance raise.
4. RISKS: If second-half costs spike unexpectedly, earnings miss could trigger a short-term selloff; Disney deal execution risk; continued subscriber churn or competition.
Timeframe: medium-term
Key Points:
- Deep value: 0.16x revenue, sub-$150/sub
- Disney deal cuts cost shortfall by $188M
- H1 EBITDA already near full-year guidance
- New CEO from Disney+ may drive growth
- 24.8% short interest, potential squeeze
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▶ Полный текст поста
FUBO trades at $8.30-8.60 ncluding Disney’s 70% stake, the look-through enterprise value is about $1 billion against $6.2 billion in annual revenue, or 0.16x sales. The market values each subscriber at roughly $140, versus $250–$400 in comparable pay-TV deals.
Disney currently reimburses 95% of Hulu + Live TV programming costs, rising to 97.5% in 2027 and 99% from 2028. On an estimated $4.7 billion cost base, the annual shortfall falls from $235 million to $47 million, improving earnings by about $188 million without subscriber growth.
Quarterly net loss improved from $40.9 million to $6.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached $37.7 million. Full-year guidance is only $80–$100 million, despite roughly $79.1 million already generated in the first half. Only $20.9 million is needed to reach the top of the range. Either second-half costs rise sharply, or management has set an unusually low bar. A guidance raise or beat could be the main earnings catalyst.
New CEO Alisa Bowen previously ran Disney+ and helped scale Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+. Short interest is 24.8% of float, with 4.14 days to cover.
Position: 2,609 shares at $8.740. Not financial advice.
I invest strictly on a value basis and only buy companies I believe are fundamentally mispriced. Based on Fubo’s revenue, subscriber base and contracted margin improvement, I estimate fair value at roughly $15–$17 per share.
Fubo trades at 0.16x sales; Disney reimbursement reduces annual cost shortfall by ~$188M by 2028, and H1 EBITDA already hit $79M vs full-year guide of $80–$100M. The combination of a low valuation floor, imminent cost improvements, and high short interest (24.8% of float) creates asymmetric upside on any positive earnings catalyst. Long Fubo as a deep-value, catalyst-driven play — the market has not priced in the margin expansion from the Disney deal or the likely guidance raise. If second-half costs spike unexpectedly, earnings miss could trigger a short-term selloff; Disney deal execution risk; continued subscriber churn or competition.