SOX just hit bear market territory. This earnings week is make or break for semis

Semiconductor index crossed 20% drawdown from the June peak this week. QQQ dropped 4.1%, SPY only 1.5%. The divergence is pretty telling. Been watching this setup for a while. Hedge fund net equity exposure has been compressing hard, down from around 25% to roughly 15% since April. Institutional selling is getting close to exhausted. SK Hynix forward P/B is sitting near 2.4x, approaching that historical trough around 2x. Valuation floor is forming but it means nothing without a catalyst. That catalyst is this week. GOOGL and TSLA both report Wednesday after close, INTC Thursday. Implied moves are not small either: GOOGL pricing in 6.17%, TSLA 6.74%, INTC 15.2%. AMD has their Advancing AI 2026 event running at the same time. Pulled the sector flow data on moomoo and retail positioning looks stubbornly contrarian here. Which is fine until it isn't. One major miss and that contrarian bet flips into forced selling, fast. The core question: does AI capex actually show up as earnings, or is it still just spend? The bull case needs GOOGL to answer that Wednesday. I trimmed some SMH exposure last week, kinda regretting it now if these numbers come in hot. Anyone else holding through earnings or cutting exposure ahead of the prints?