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Do you think ServiceNow can grow its FCFF faster than 11% a year for the next decade?

u/Don236518 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · July 13, 2026 at 02:23 · ⬆ 17 pts · 💬 36 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Summary

  • Author performs a reverse DCF on ServiceNow (NOW) at $107, finding the market implies only 11.2% annual FCFF growth over the next decade.
  • Historical SBC-adjusted FCFF growth is 26.8% (5yr), 40.6% (10yr), and 37.7% (3yr) – 2-3x faster than the implied rate.
  • Thesis: Pessimism is exaggerated; AI threat may be overblown; the setup offers a margin of safety for patient longs.
  • Quality assessment: Well-researched DD – uses explicit assumptions (WACC 9.5%, terminal growth 4.35%), adjusts for stock-based compensation, and provides historical context. Reasonable, data-driven analysis.
Score 17
Comments 36
Upvote % 76%
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Ideas
u/Don236518 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Reverse DCF yields 11.2% implied FCFF growth; historical growth is 26-41%, suggesting market is overly pessimistic. If NOW grows FCFF anywhere near its historical rate, the current price offers significant upside; the market has already discounted a severe slowdown. Buy NOW at ~$107, betting that the company can sustain growth above the implied 11.2% over the next decade. AI disrupts ServiceNow’s platform; macro slowdown pressures enterprise spending; SBC dilution is higher than modeled; terminal growth assumption may be too high.
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This Reddit post, published July 13, 2026, features u/Don236518 discussing NOW. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Don236518  · Tickers: NOW