Down $143K from the peak on NBIS. Adding on the way down. Regarded or early?
u/dylanavocado ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· July 08, 2026 at 00:41
· ⬆ 53 pts
· 💬 53 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
Author u/dylanavocado details a $143K drawdown on NBIS (1,370 shares) but remains highly bullish, arguing that a Bloomberg report about Meta selling excess compute is overblown and that the company’s fundamentals (contracted power, Nvidia backing, short interest at ~24%, Nasdaq-100 inclusion) remain intact.
Thesis: NBIS is oversold on a misinterpreted headline; a Q2 earnings beat could trigger a short squeeze, pushing the stock back from ~$195 to above $300 by end of August.
Quality assessment: Moderately researched DD combining catalysts (earnings, short interest, index flows) with personal position, but reliant on narrative rather than rigorous valuation. Some community comments suggest AI-generated text, reducing credibility.
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Alright degenerates, let's talk about my favorite money incinerator, $NBIS.
The damage: 1,370 shares. Down $24K today alone. Down $143K since the June 22 top. Watched a third of my gains evaporate in two weeks because Zuck sneezed. Still up 387% on the position because I bought this thing in the $30s and apparently have a medical inability to take profit.
Why we're bleeding: Bloomberg dropped a report July 1 that Meta wants to sell its excess compute ("Meta Compute"). Market decided Nebius's biggest customer is now its biggest competitor and the whole neocloud sector got sent to the shadow realm. NBIS and CRWV both nuked.
Why I'm not selling and actually think this rips:
1. Meta literally signed a deal worth up to $27B with Nebius in MARCH. $12B dedicated capacity, $15B optional. You don't hand your "competitor" $27 billion. Meta reselling spare GPUs is not Meta becoming AWS.
2. The company is drowning in demand. Contracted power went from \~1GW last August to 3.5GW+ now, targeting 4GW. 1.2GW site locked in Pennsylvania. New data centers in the UK, Finland, and France. Daddy Jensen put $2B of Nvidia money in. The fundamentals did not change. A headline changed.
3. Here's the fun part: short interest is around 24% of float. Almost a quarter of this stock is sold short after a 35% drawdown. Q2 earnings land inside the next few weeks. You know what happens when a 24% shorted stock beats earnings. You've all seen this movie.
4. It joined the Nasdaq-100 in June, so index funds are forced buyers now. Aschenbrenner's AI fund owns 5.6% of the company.
And before you tell me $300 is copium: this exact ticker went $200 to $300 in five weeks in May and June. No squeeze fuel, no catalyst. It just did it. Now it's back at $195 with 24% SI and an earnings print loading.
My prediction: shorts press it to the $180s, shake out the paper hands, then it turns on a dime and we're back above $300 by end of August. If I'm wrong, screenshot this and roast me. If I'm right, I'm buying a spoiler for the 911 with the gains.
Positions: 1,370 shares NBIS, no options because I'm not THAT regarded.
Not financial advice. I eat crayons.
Meta signed a $27B partnership with Nebius in March, and the recent "Meta Compute" sell-off ignores that Meta is a customer, not a competitor. Contracted power surged from ~1GW to 3.5GW+. Nvidia committed $2B. 24% short interest on a 35% drawdown + Nasdaq-100 forced buying + Q2 earnings in weeks creates a classic squeeze setup. The stock previously rallied $200→$300 in five weeks without a catalyst. The sell-off is an overreaction to headline risk; fundamentals unchanged. A beat on earnings could trigger a sharp re-rating and squeeze. Meta actually pivoting to compete in cloud compute; broader AI capex slowdown; earnings miss; continued dilution or management missteps.
This Reddit post, published July 08, 2026,
features u/dylanavocado
discussing NBIS.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.