u/k0stj ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· June 23, 2026 at 23:07
· ⬆ 16 pts
· 💬 31 comments
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Summary
The author compares INTU, CRM, MSFT, and NOW as potential value plays, ranking INTU and CRM highest for quality + upside.
Thesis: INTU offers a top-tier software compounder at a non-extreme multiple; CRM is cheap with strong FCF; MSFT is safe but not discounted; NOW is best operationally but rarely cheap.
Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with quantitative and qualitative reasoning on moats, growth, and valuation.
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# INTU
* Highest-quality business relative to current valuation.
* Dominant positions in TurboTax, Credit Karma and QuickBooks.
* Very high switching costs.
* AI likely strengthens rather than disrupts the moat.
* Trades well below the premium multiple many investors were willing to pay a few years ago.
# CRM
* Cheapest on traditional metrics.
* Strong FCF generation.
* Market still somewhat skeptical because growth slowed from its hypergrowth era.
* If growth reaccelerates even modestly, multiple expansion could add to returns.
# MSFT
* Probably the safest choice.
* Azure + AI + Office + Windows remains an incredible combination.
* However, the market already recognizes this, so the valuation discount isn't huge.
* Excellent risk-adjusted return, but not the biggest "value" among the four.
# NOW
* Arguably the best business of the group operationally.
* But the stock rarely gets cheap.
* You're paying a premium for exceptional execution and long runway.
* I'd only call it a value play after a significant correction.
If I were deploying fresh capital today looking for the best mix of **quality + upside from valuation**, I'd lean:
**INTU > CRM > MSFT > NOW**
For pure quality regardless of valuation:
**NOW ≈ MSFT > INTU > CRM**
The interesting thing is that INTU is probably the only one here where you can reasonably argue you're buying a top-tier software compounder without paying an extreme premium.
INTU has dominant positions in TurboTax, Credit Karma, and QuickBooks with high switching costs; AI strengthens its moat; trades well below historical peak multiples. The market is undervaluing a durable compounding business, creating a margin-of-safety entry point for long-term appreciation. Buy INTU as a top-tier software compounder without paying an extreme premium, expecting multiple expansion and earnings growth. Regulatory changes in tax or credit scoring, competition from new fintech disruptors, or macroeconomic slowdown hurting small businesses. TICKER - CRM - LONG | confidence: 0.70 | sentiment: +0.50 Speaker: u/k0stj Thesis: CRM is cheapest on traditional metrics, generates strong FCF, and market skepticism over slowing growth has depressed its multiple. If growth reaccelerates (even modestly), multiple expansion could add to returns; current price reflects pessimism, not potential. Buy CRM for a turnaround value play with FCF yield, expecting re-rating as growth stabilizes or improves. Continued growth deceleration, competitive pressure from Microsoft Dynamics, or failed AI monetization. TICKER - NOW - WATCH | confidence: 0.60 | sentiment: +0.30 Speaker: u/k0stj Thesis: NOW is arguably the best operational business in the group but rarely gets cheap; current valuation reflects exceptional execution and long runway. A significant correction would turn it into a value play; until then, it’s a premium-priced quality stock. Monitor for a pullback; do not initiate a position at current levels. The author would only call it a value play after a correction. No imminent catalyst for a correction; strong execution may keep the premium high, delaying entry.