Adobe is down to 2018 levels, and is trading 5x to 2030 earnings
u/AggressiveAd9058 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· June 23, 2026 at 07:36
· ⬆ 24 pts
· 💬 16 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
The post argues that Adobe (ADBE) is oversold, trading at 2018 price levels and offering a compelling entry due to its AI-driven ARR growth and proven freemium strategy.
The author’s thesis is that the market is panicking over a $500M ARR step-down from going freemium, but Adobe has successfully executed this playbook before (Acrobat Reader) and now has Firefly/Express and AI agents expanding the TAM.
The post is a well-reasoned, data-supported DD (cites AI-first ARR growing 3x YoY, AEP processing 70B profile activations daily, and Creative Agent integration in ChatGPT/Claude) with a clear catalyst watch list (Q3 MAU and Firefly ARR).
Score24
Comments16
Upvote %88%
▶ Full Post Text
Adobe stock is going through a massive selloff, and trading at 2018 levels. I think the market is being a little panicky with Adobe and I partially agree that a $500 million ARR step-down by going freemium would obviously be concerning to shareholders.
But Adobe has done this before, and it's paid off well. Acrobat Reader was free for decades and became 850M+ MAU that now monetizes through AI Assistant and premium plans.
Adobe is has a very strong record at this very playbook. They are willing to bet that they can make Firefly and Express follow the same playbook at larger scale.
The following are not being priced in, in my opinion:
\- Adobe's Creative Agent is already inside ChatGPT and Claude.
\- AEP processes 70 billion profile activations a day.
\- AI-first ARR is growing 3x year-over-year above $ 500M.
I will be watching Q3 MAU growth and Firefly ARR sequentially. If those two numbers hold, the bet is paying off. If they don't, the step-down masks structural weakness. Thoughts?
Adobe stock is at 2018 levels, yet AI-first ARR is already above $500M and growing 3x year-over-year; Creative Agent is embedded in ChatGPT and Claude. If the market is mispricing Adobe’s AI monetization potential and freemium risk is overstated, a re-rating could occur as Q3 metrics confirm the bet is paying off. Buying ADBE at current depressed multiples offers a favorable risk/reward, with a catalyst in the next quarter’s MAU and Firefly ARR data. If Q3 MAU growth stalls or Firefly ARR disappoints, the step-down may reveal structural weakness, invalidating the thesis.
This Reddit post, published June 23, 2026,
features u/AggressiveAd9058
discussing ADBE.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.