I’m 70% into SK Hynix and need a serious reality check. Roast my thesis.

u/1Derpdos1 · Reddit — r/stocks · June 18, 2026 at 15:36 · ⬆ 30 pts · 💬 23 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Author holds 70% of portfolio in SK Hynix and presents a bullish AI-memory thesis with HBM leadership, cheap valuation, an August ADR/NASDAQ listing catalyst, and a legacy DRAM shortage, while listing bear risks.

000660.KS — LONG The author holds 70% of their portfolio in SK Hynix and argues it remains a deep-value AI-memory play because it leads in HBM3E/HBM4E, trades at roughly 8x forward P/E, and faces upcoming catalysts including an August ADR/NASDAQ listing and a legacy DRAM shortage later this year. They expect the ADR listing to unlock US institutional and tech-ETF inflows and liquid options, while the DRAM shortage should let Hynix profit on non-AI chips. Main stated risks are hyperscaler double-ordering/cancellations, the TSMC CoWoS packaging bottleneck, an overbought chart, operational single-point failures, and Nvidia helping Samsung/Micron qualify to compress margins. They plan to trim before Alphabet Q earnings to assess capex.

TL;DR: I have 70% of my stocks riding on SK Hynix. The Bull Case: Absolute tech monopoly in HBM3E/HBM4E, an absurdly compressed valuation (Forward P/E ~8), upcoming August NASDAQ listing catalyst, and a severe structural legacy DRAM shortage.

000660.KS — LONG The author claims SK Hynix owns the high-end AI memory space with a massive HBM3E lead over Samsung and Micron and was first to ship 12-layer HBM4E samples to Nvidia for Rubin. They argue HBM4E is co-designed into Nvidia's architecture, making mid-generation cancellations less likely, though Nvidia is helping Samsung and Micron qualify to force prices down. The main risk is that Samsung qualification floods the market and Hynix loses margin leverage.

They completely own the high-end AI memory space: They have a massive lead over Samsung and Micron in HBM3E, and they just became the first to ship 12-layer HBM4E samples to Nvidia for the upcoming Rubin chips.

000660.KS — LONG The author argues SK Hynix trades at roughly 8x forward P/E due to a Korea Discount despite operating profit growing about 60% quarter-over-quarter, making it a deep-value play inside the AI supercycle. They note domestic brokers whisper 61 trillion Won Q2 operating profit and say earnings estimates are rising faster than the stock price, keeping the forward multiple compressed. The stated risk is that a cyclical bust or margin compression from competition would break the value case.

The valuation makes no sense: Thanks to the "Korea Discount," the stock is trading at a forward P/E of roughly 8. For a company growing its operating profit by \~60% quarter-over-quarter, this feels like a deep value play hiding inside an AI supercycle.

000660.KS — LONG The author expects the August ADR/NASDAQ listing to unlock massive passive and active inflows from US institutional funds and tech ETFs like SOXX that cannot currently buy directly on the Korean exchange, plus liquid option chains. This creates a near-term demand catalyst for the underlying Korean shares. They also note a 2.5% NASDAQ dilution to fund capacity as a potential risk if TSMC packaging prevents chips from shipping.

The NASDAQ listing catalyst: The ADR listing in August is going to unlock massive passive and active inflows from US institutional funds and tech ETFs (like SOXX) that legally can’t buy directly on the Korean exchange right now. Plus, we finally get liquid option chains.

000660.KS — LONG The author argues that memory makers are gutting standard computer/server DRAM capex to build HBM lines, which will cause a legacy DRAM supply deficit later this year. They expect SK Hynix to profit on non-AI chips when standard DRAM prices rise. The main risk is a broader memory cycle downturn or capacity shifts.

The legacy DRAM shortage: Everyone is gutting their normal computer/server memory capex to build expensive HBM lines instead. When standard DRAM runs into a supply deficit later this year, Hynix is going to mint money on non-AI chips too.

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u/1Derpdos1 Reddit r/stocks
Long SK Hynix on HBM lead, cheap valuation, listings
The author holds 70% of their portfolio in SK Hynix and argues it remains a deep-value AI-memory play because it leads in HBM3E/HBM4E, trades at roughly 8x forward P/E, and faces upcoming catalysts including an August ADR/NASDAQ listing and a legacy DRAM shortage later this year. They expect the ADR listing to unlock US institutional and tech-ETF inflows and liquid options, while the DRAM shortage should let Hynix profit on non-AI chips. Main stated risks are hyperscaler double-ordering/cancellations, the TSMC CoWoS packaging bottleneck, an overbought chart, operational single-point failures, and Nvidia helping Samsung/Micron qualify to compress margins. They plan to trim before Alphabet Q earnings to assess capex.
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This Reddit post, published June 18, 2026, features u/1Derpdos1 discussing 000660.KS. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

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