Genuinely what on earth is going on with software right now? This is completely unhinged.
u/-----Marcel----- ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· June 17, 2026 at 20:39
· ⬆ 30 pts
· 💬 96 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
Author is panicked about a massive, unexplained selloff in enterprise software stocks (NOW, CRM, ADBE, MSFT) over ~2.5 weeks, with declines of 30–40% despite no negative news and solid earnings.
Thesis: The market has become irrational and momentum-driven, ignoring strong fundamentals (high FCF, zero debt, growing net income), resembling dot-com or COVID-era panic isolated to software.
Quality assessment: Emotional speculation with some factual price data, but lacks rigorous DD (no valuation multiples, no catalyst analysis). More of a sentiment post than actionable research.
Score30
Comments96
Upvote %81%
▶ Full Post Text
What we are witnessing over the past two and a half weeks is some of the craziest, most irrational market behavior I’ve ever seen in my life.
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The IGV software index looked like it was starting a clean comeback in mid-June, bringing names up significantly. Which made sense because close to zero major software companies are actually seeing negative headwinds from AI. If anything, many are actively enhancing their business models by implementing it.
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But this market has completely decoupled from reality. You have highly profitable software businesses with massive free cash flow, zero debt, and growing net income literally collapsing right in front of our eyes.
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Look at what has happened in the span of less than three weeks:
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• ServiceNow ($NOW): Down nearly 30-40%
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• Salesforce ($CRM): Down 30% (down 12 straight days in a row without a single green day)
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• Adobe ($ADBE): Down 30%
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• Microsoft ($MSFT): A literal Mag 7 pillar down 20%, trading like a volatile meme coin.
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How is this even possible with zero catastrophic news, zero fundamental changes, and zero structural catalysts? The majority of these names are delivering solid, above-expected earnings, yet 4 to 10 years of painstaking structural gains are getting wiped out in under a month. This isn't even an exaggeration. It feels like we have officially reached the point where fundamentals mean absolutely nothing. It is entirely driven by hype, momentum, and whatever fake narrative the market decides to chase.
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The complete disconnect is proven perfectly by things like SpaceX, where a tiny float gets pumped 75% for no logical reason while real businesses with real cash flows get absolutely slaughtered. The broader market is sitting near all-time highs while software is in a literal freefall, bleeding red for three straight weeks.
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I honestly feel sick to my stomach looking at this. My mindset is long-term, and I can handle normal downside, but a 30% to 40% capitulation on enterprise-grade tech in half a month isn't a normal correction. This is dotcom or 2020 COVID-level panic movements, but isolated to a single sector for no reason.
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I’m completely in shock and honestly terrified to check the aggregate losses across my accounts. I don't even have any dry powder left to buy this dip.
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What are you guys even doing at this point? Is anyone else just holding through this absolute bloodbath, or has the market completely lost its mind?
Software index (IGV) and major holdings like NOW, CRM, ADBE have dropped 30–40% in <3 weeks with zero fundamental deterioration – companies are profitable, debt-free, and beating earnings. This price action appears detached from reality, creating a potential mean-reversion opportunity if fundamentals reassert themselves. The market may be oversold on a sector-wide basis. A contrarian long on IGV betting that the selloff is irrational and that software stocks will recover once momentum shifts or macro fears prove overblown. Continued liquidity crunch (top comment mentions semis need to crash first), further rotation out of software, or a genuine macro shock (recession, AI disruption). Author has no dry powder left, suggesting his own conviction is tested.
This Reddit post, published June 17, 2026,
features u/-----Marcel-----
discussing IGV.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.