I burnt 5 Million tokens with Claude Fable 5/Ultracode to get "consulting" on SpaceX IPO
u/Sotch_Nam ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· June 11, 2026 at 20:31
· ⬆ 73 pts
· 💬 59 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The author used an AI (Claude) costing ~$120 in tokens to analyze the upcoming SpaceX IPO, concluding a "WAIT" verdict.
Thesis: The IPO is overvalued at the expected opening price (~$157–162), with poor historical returns for large IPOs and upcoming lockup releases that will pressure the stock.
Quality assessment: Well-structured DD supported by base-rate data and lockup analysis, but relies on an AI’s interpretation of public filings – more speculative than original research.
Score73
Comments59
Upvote %85%
▶ Full Post Text
The prompt I used was the following: [https://pastebin.com/tSR0hgTg](https://pastebin.com/tSR0hgTg)
It spun up 2 workflows to do it's magic.
30mins and 5 Million tokens later, it's verdict was:
`## TL;DR`
1. `**VERDICT: WAIT.** Do not buy the opening print. Re-evaluate after options list (June 16) and again after the first earnings unlock (~August 2026).`
2. `The $135 fixed price stands per the latest EDGAR filing (June 3 S-1/A) and no delay or SEC action appeared overnight; the gray market points to an open near **$157–162** (~16–20% premium) — that's ~**110–114x trailing sales**, ~1.8x the most expensive stock in the S&P 500, ~2.6x Morningstar's $780B fair value.`
3. `The base-rate table is brutal: across the 10 largest US IPOs, the **median return from the opening print is −2.9% at 1 week, −8.7% at 6 months, −27.9% at 1 year** — 7 of 10 were underwater at every horizon, and academic data (Ritter) shows aftermarket buyers give up ~17 points over 3 years vs allocation recipients.`
4. `Supply is timed against a 6-month swing: tiered lockup releases start **day 70 (Aug 20)**, ~20–30% of insider shares unlock at first earnings (~August), 28% more after Q3 earnings, full 180-day release **Dec 8, 2026** — exactly when a 6-month position would be exiting.`
5. `What would change the call: an open at/below ~$140, verified index-flow demand ($22–27B NDX/Russell estimate is single-sourced), or Q2 earnings showing growth re-accelerating above 30% with AI losses narrowing.`
There it is bros, the AGI has spoke.
For those interested, full outputs: [https://limewire.com/d/bY6Pm#kTjNvpnVbk](https://limewire.com/d/bY6Pm#kTjNvpnVbk)