SpaceX IPO on 12th June ($SPCX) - here's why I'm not buying

I spent two weeks reading the SpaceX S-1. And I'm not buying the IPO tomorrow. Let me be clear upfront: Starlink is one of the best businesses I've analyzed in years. 39% operating margins. 63% EBITDA margins. 50% revenue growth. If Starlink were its own public company, I'd probably be writing a very different post. The valuation timeline is what bothers me. • $350B in May 2025 • $800B in December 2025 • $1.25T after the xAI merger • $1.75T at IPO That's a 5× increase in twelve months. The election. The merger. The IPO announcement. Each added hundreds of billions in value, yet none were driven by a major improvement in the core business. Then there's the merger. Before xAI, SpaceX earned $791M in net income during 2024. After the merger: • 2025 net loss: $4.9B • Q1 2026 net loss: $4.3B One quarter nearly matched the entire prior year's loss. The segment breakdown is even more striking. • Starlink operating profit: +$4.42B • AI segment operating loss: -$6.35B One business is carrying the company. Another is consuming cash at an extraordinary rate. xAI generated $3.2B in revenue but burned roughly $14B in cash. AI capex reached $7.7B in Q1 2026 alone. The company also carries $29B of long-term debt, and the S-1 suggests additional capital raises are likely. One detail I haven't seen discussed enough: Starlink ARPU fell from roughly $99/month in 2023 to about $66/month today. That's a 33% decline. More subscribers. Less revenue per subscriber. Now consider valuation. Meta: \~22× EBITDA Alphabet: \~18× EBITDA Microsoft: \~28× EBITDA SpaceX IPO: \~266× EBITDA For that multiple to work, investors need: 1. Starship to achieve sustained operational cadence 2. xAI to become a highly profitable business 3. Terafab to succeed despite having no binding agreements today All three....At the same time. Two other things worth knowing: • Elon Musk controls 85% of voting rights through super-voting shares • Retail investors are receiving roughly 30% of the float versus \~10% for a typical mega-cap IPO I'm not arguing the company fails....The bull case is real. But at $1.75T, investors are paying a premium price today for outcomes that still need to be proven....