u/ValueEquities

Backtest shows monthly DCA ($984,594) outperformed extreme CAPE timing ($828,693) by $155,901; Faber 10-month SMA ($992,120) beat DCA by ~$8K. The data implies that for most investors, continuing systematic investing (DCA or trend-following) is superior to waiting for “cheap” CAPE levels, even at current ~37 CAPE. Favor a disciplined, rule-based approach (DCA or SMA) over trying to time the market based on valuation metrics like CAPE. Historically low 10-year forward real returns (~0.6% CAGR) from CAPE 37 could still lead to long drawdowns; trend-following strategies may whipsaw in choppy markets.

Pinterest crossed $1B quarterly revenue for the first time, revenue up 18% YoY, ~80% gross margins, nearly debt-free, generates real cash flow, and is down ~20% YTD. Analysts rate PINS a Buy, yet the stock has been punished as part of the “busted 2021 growth” basket. This disconnect between improving fundamentals and depressed price creates a compelling re-rating opportunity. Long PINS as a high-quality, cash-flow-positive business trading at a discount due to sector stigma; catalyst is continued earnings growth and eventual recognition by the market. Ad spending slowdown, competition from Meta/ByteDance, failure to monetize international users, or macro recession hitting digital advertising.