Jalen Brunson will make me $1 million. How is no one talking about this? Madison Square Garden ($MSGS) DD

JohnDaBoss1 · 2026-06-08T02:13:22+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The author claims MSGS (Knicks/Rangers parent) trades at a ~30% discount to NAV and will unlock value via a planned spin-off, with the Knicks’ NBA Finals run (80% win probability) as a short-term catalyst. - He took out a $15k loan to bet on Knicks games, rolled the winnings into MSGS OTM calls, expecting 10-100x returns due to low IV (~45%) and tiny public float. - Quality assessment: This is speculative gambling dressed as DD—the sports betting narrative and reliance on a single playoff outcome make it noise, not a sound investment thesis. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === TICKER - DIRECTION | confidence: 0.65 | sentiment: +0.75 Speaker: u/JohnDaBoss1 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: MSGS holds the Knicks (~$9.9B private valuation) and Rangers (~$3.8B) but trades at only $9.3B market cap, a 30% holdco discount; CEO filed a Form 10 to spin off the teams. 2. THE BRIDGE: The spin-off forces the market to price teams independently, potentially closing the discount; a Knicks championship could add 30-40% near-term upside, and each playoff home game generates ~$20M operating profit. 3. THE VERDICT: OTM calls on MSGS offer asymmetric upside (low IV, tiny float) with a binary sports catalyst. 4. RISKS: Knicks lose the Finals (Wembanyama/Spurs counter), spin-off delayed or fails to close discount, Dolan family control limits liquidity; loan interest amplifies downside. Timeframe: short-term (NBA Finals conclude in June 2026) Key Points: - SOTP target ~$555 vs current ~$383 - Low IV (~45%) and tiny float (5%) amplify moves - Short-term binary event (championship) is key - Loan-funded position increases risk of ruin - Spin-off catalyst is longer-term, uncertain === COMMENTS SUMMARY === The top comment (u/HighwayExotic2808) warns the author to pay off the $15k loan after winning two sports bets, suggesting gambling discipline over doubling down. Another comment (u/InevitableAd2436) acknowledges MSGS could pop if the Knicks win, providing mild support but

AI Summary

Summary

The author claims MSGS (Knicks/Rangers parent) trades at a ~30% discount to NAV and will unlock value via a planned spin-off, with the Knicks’ NBA Finals run (80% win probability) as a short-term catalyst.
He took out a $15k loan to bet on Knicks games, rolled the winnings into MSGS OTM calls, expecting 10-100x returns due to low IV (~45%) and tiny public float.
Quality assessment: This is speculative gambling dressed as DD—the sports betting narrative and reliance on a single playoff outcome make it noise, not a sound investment thesis.

Score 29

Comments 17

Upvote % 85%

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For game 1 of the NBA finals, I took out a $15,000 Amex loan to “invest” in the Knicks game one. Then, I rolled my profits into the Knicks game 2, and now I’m rolling them all into $MSGS OTM calls.

[Dumbass Sports Bet #1](https://preview.redd.it/s0pcglznwy5h1.png?width=943&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=09e3b23f93fae2ea5cc9d524d7e8157af9653df7)

[Dumbass Sports Bet #2](https://preview.redd.it/u7ufhc7jwy5h1.png?width=943&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=a9aa78d942629aba815e3f2ed8c10dcf18938e4e)

# The DD

MSGS is the parent company of the Knicks (NBA) and the Rangers (NHL). It is one of the only ways to trade sports teams in the stock market. The Knicks are privately valued at \~$10B, and the Rangers at \~$3.8B. **Despite owning $13.8B in sports equity, MSGS’ market cap trades at only $9.3B, a 30% discount to net asset value (NAV)**. 

The CEO (Dolan) looked at that \~30% holdco discount and recently filed a Form 10 to break up the company and spin the teams out into separate publicly traded companies**.** Stop burying the Knicks (\~$9.9B private mark) inside a conglomerate, force the market to price it against real comps, and the discount evaporates. **SOTP screams \~$555/share vs. \~$383 now**.

Then add the cherry on top: the Knicks currently have a [\~80% chance](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-nba-champion) (up from 25% a week ago) to win the NBA Finals, which would catapult the stock up anywhere from 30-40% by the next quarter. And even if they don’t win, each playoff home game prints over \~$20M operating profit → at any reasonable forward multiple their market cap should expand dramatically. 

# The options play 

IV on MSGS options is only \~45%**. This is almost nothing compared to the 200-300% numbers on the FDs I’m used to trading!** 

* **ATM calls:** easy 10x
* **OTM calls:** 100x when the Knicks close it out 

This is functionally an asymmetric sports bet (in terms of upside), with limited downside (options are exceptionally cheap). Heads I win $280k, tails I only owe Amex $2.8k. 

Icing on the cake is that 95% of MSGS’s float is held by the Dolan family and large institutions. So any small change to the \~5% of shares available for trading on the public market will catapult the stock into the stratosphere. 

# Risks

**Victor Wembanyama.** Enough said.

Positions below (+$10k to be deployed Monday at open into OTM calls). NFA.

https://preview.redd.it/92wd4plqwy5h1.png?width=943&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=e39f19126ad3f80d166670e7cbfd4e30fe99eefc

https://preview.redd.it/3w3smq6rwy5h1.png?width=942&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=8bda746628aef4fa23bf42be254be75cb422b3b3

Summary

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