Am I the only one who thinks there is zero percent chance of a rate hike?

This is not a political post; this is about how it makes no economic sense to raise interest rates (1) The Fed has never been less independent. White House clearly wants rate cuts, not hikes. He might not get the cuts in the short term, but hard to see his appointees hiking rates (2) Inflation is being mostly driven by oil, which is being driven mostly by the war in Iran. You raise interest rates when an economy is overheating. Raising interest rates does not affect the war in Iran. Raising interest rates would do economic damage for literally no reason. The simpletons whose analysis stops with “but inflation” need to understand that it’s the CAUSE of inflation that matters and whether that cause will be affected by an increase in interest rates. (3) Put differently, when the war inevitably ends, and oil prices relax, inflation relaxes too