Bellring Brands (BRBR) my newest multibagger to be
u/SelenaMeyers2024 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 29, 2026 at 17:44
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 7 comments
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Summary
Post discusses Bellring Brands (BRBR), a protein powder company spun off from Post Holdings, whose stock dropped from $78 to $8.44 due to weak guidance (0-2% growth) and margin compression from Costco price war.
Author’s thesis: the sell-off is overdone; despite near-term headwinds, the company has a strong buyback program that could retire ~50% of float, and fair value is estimated at $25.
Quality assessment: Speculative, with some fundamental data (EBITDA, margins, buyback authorization) but lacks deep competitive moat or cash flow analysis; more a contrarian/value gambit than rigorous DD.
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Spun off from post holdings, Bellring Brands primarily makes whey protein powder under dominant brand Premier Protein and Dymatize. If you recognize me ever here, you know I don't chase up, I chase down, so obviously something went wrong bc now it's in the thrift store where I shop.
No joke, one year ago this was 78 dollars. Today I yolo'd into 8.44. They had guided for 5 percent growth, now 0 to 2. Ebitda 320m down from 450 for the year. Gross margins 22 percent down from 35 percent a year ago. Not nice surprises. Costco is forcing a kinda price war in the near term.
But otoh.... This is way overdone. Theyve been buying back shares like crazy at 3x the price. The MC is down to a billy, with the remaining authorization of 500m they could retire half the float of 116m
This isn't an argument it should be 78 dollars. Like all my bets, there's a fallen angel aspect where it really is worth less than it was due to bad news. But I put this at 25 dollars easy. Nfa. Discuss.
Stock fell 89% from $78 to $8.44; company guided 0-2% growth vs prior 5%, EBITDA down to $320M from $450M, gross margins compressed from 35% to 22% due to Costco price pressure. Author believes the market overreacted; with market cap ~$1B and $500M remaining buyback authorization, the company could retire half the float, supporting a recovery to $25 (3x current price). Contrarian long on a fallen angel with massive buyback tailwind; bet on margin stabilization and mean reversion once price war subsides. Continued margin compression from Costco/pricing competition, further demand weakness, execution risk on buyback (if debt/cash flow issues arise).
This Reddit post, published May 29, 2026,
features u/SelenaMeyers2024
discussing BRBR.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.