u/Juicydicken ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 29, 2026 at 16:14
· ⬆ 18 pts
· 💬 83 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The author argues Micron (MU) is undervalued because HBM memory is structurally different from commodity DRAM, with only three suppliers and surging demand from AI/data-center capex.
He claims analyst estimates consistently miss the HBM mix shift, and the current multiple does not reflect MU’s improved business quality over a 3–5 year horizon.
Quality assessment: Speculative opinion with limited fundamental data; more of a narrative thesis than rigorous DD. The top community comments highlight weak cash flow and receivables risks that the post ignores.
Score18
Comments83
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Micron is still being priced like the old cycle playbook applies. Oversupply fear, commodity margins, all that. That made sense for a long time. It doesn’t really fit anymore.
HBM is not the same thing as DRAM. It’s not price shopped, it’s not interchangeable, and there are three companies that can actually produce it at scale. Samsung, hynix, Micron. Nvidia is not in a position to conjure up a fourth. That supply constraint is real and it’s not going away quickly.
Analyst estimates have been wrong in the same direction for two years running. The models don’t properly account for HBM mix shift so they keep underestimating. This isn’t a one off.
Data centre demand also hasn’t fully fed through into numbers yet. Every major hyperscaler this year has guided capex higher than expected. That infrastructure needs memory. A lot of it. Inference at scale is particularly hungry for HBM and that buildout is still early.
Meanwhile the multiple is nowhere near what you’d expect given MU’s position in the supply chain. Cyclicality is a real risk, not dismissing it. But the gap between price and what the business actually looks like on a 3-5 year view is hard to ignore.