u/Extension_Emu5973 ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· May 26, 2026 at 09:25
· ⬆ 69 pts
· 💬 71 comments
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Summary
The author argues that RKLB is massively overvalued at an $81B market cap, citing negative net income, only $680M TTM revenue (over 100x price/sales), and a payload capacity 600x less than SpaceX.
He believes the company is riding a “buy the rumor, sell the news” wave ahead of the SpaceX IPO, and that RKLB will crash regardless of SpaceX’s IPO outcome.
Despite holding shares since $4 and selling some at $80, he now holds RKLB puts and plans to add more late-2026 puts if the stock opens above $140.
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Rklb is sitting at 81b market cap as of this morning. 81b... with negative income. They have roughly by my calcs 600x less payload to orbit than spacex... Yet the company is valued at 20x less than space X if space X is 1.5t to 2t market cap (as expected)
Can someone justify that to me? Genuinely want to be talked out of buying puts here.
On top of that space X has the super profitable starlink making up most of its business...
Rklb is going all in on launch as far as I can tell, maybe I'm wrong here but neutron is their Hail Mary. They have other stuff going on sure but I don't see any of that justifying 80b market cap lol.
Everyone acts like rklb is the second coming of space X.. And there is no other competition. Well... There is a ton of private companies making rockets not just space X. Then you have the public company firefly making a rocket with just as much payload as neutron!!! Even if rklb pull neutron off it doesn't even compete with falcon 9 heavy for payloads lol. Debate me if I'm wrong here but rklb is not set up as the big second in field here, this shit is way more competitive than people are making out. It's not going to be space X + rklb dominating space. And even if it is I do not believe the TAM in the next year's is going to justify these market cap multiples.
Anyway I think space as a whole here is in a buy the rumour sell the news, the rumour being space X Ipo, the news event being the actual space X Ipo.
I think there is a high chance here that Rklb is going to shit the bed. It's incredibly over extended. If space X Ipo does well then RKLB probably dips, if space X Ipo crashes than rklb will most certainly crash.
Even forgetting about the Ipo angle:
$680M TTM revenue Negative net income Neutron not yet operational at scale No Starlink-equivalent recurring cash machine
It is comfortably over 100x p/s lmao. That's pltr territory and at least that shit is turning a profit.
Market cap is 13x Lunr whilst having less forward revenue projected. And Lunr is profitable! And Lunr is probably a little over valued right now too hahahah. Shits nuts imo.
Positions: I've been holding rklb shares since 4 dollars. Sold some at 80 USD thinking it's getting overvalued. Still holding others + Lunr + Bksy etc. Now at 135 I bought puts. I'm going to buy more puts aimed at late 2026 if it opens above 140 this morning.
RKLB has $680M TTM revenue, negative net income, no operational Neutron rocket yet, and no Starlink-like recurring revenue. Its market cap is 13x LUNR with lower forward revenue, and it trades above 100x price/sales. The extreme valuation multiple (81B market cap vs. $680M revenue) creates a mean-reversion opportunity, especially if the SpaceX IPO acts as a catalyst for sector-wide repricing. Shorting RKLB via puts targets a correction as fundamentals fail to justify the current price, particularly after the SpaceX IPO euphoria fades. RKLB could continue rallying on momentum and retail hype; community comments note that “overvalued” does not mean “soon to fall,” and the company’s end-to-end space capabilities may command a premium.
This Reddit post, published May 26, 2026,
features u/Extension_Emu5973
discussing RKLB.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.