The AI data center build-out won't last forever. Here is the long-term risk with CXMT and why we all need an exit strategy.

Let's talk about the real long term risk with MU and why you need an actual exit plan instead of just screaming 1400. A lot of people are ignoring the Chinese company CXMT flooding the market with cheap commodity RAM. Yes, they are going to eventually supply the low end phones, basic cars, and standard robotics because those devices dont need HBM. But from a pure manufacturing and operations standpoint, Micron isnt even fighting them for that low margin stuff right now. They basically abandoned standard DDR4 and re-tooled their lines for premium LPDDR5X for high end EVs and AI phones, and obviously HBM for Nvidia racks. Right now MU is printing money because they control the premium bottleneck and the yields are tight. But eventually the music stops. When the hyperscalers finish this massive AI data center build out and stop ordering HBM at this insane volume, what happens? MU is going to have to re-tool those massive factory lines back to standard DRAM just to keep the machines running. When they dump all that new supply into a market that CXMT already saturated with cheap volume, prices crash, margins get wiped out, and anyone holding the bag gets fucked. Im extremely bullish right now and fully plan to ride this wave to the 1000 to 1200 range. But memory is a cyclical industry. If you plan to just hold forever without tracking the daily KPIs and data center spending, you are going to get crushed when the cycle finally turns. Have a hard exit number and be ready to walk away with your cash.