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Sorry in advance because I know this is probably post #1,000 this week on Microsoft, but I think a lot of people are looking at the potential MSFT rally the wrong way.
The recent market environment has been extremely bullish for semis and memory names: NVDA, Micron, AMD, SanDisk, etc. That move makes sense given AI sentiment and the direction of CapEx spending. But that is exactly why I think Microsoft is interesting here.
Last quarter’s numbers were stellar:
* Revenue: $82.9B (+18% YoY)
* EPS: $4.27 (+21% YoY)
* Microsoft Cloud revenue: $54.5B (+29%)
* Azure growth: \~39–40%
* AI annual revenue run rate: >$37B (+123%)
The market keeps treating Microsoft like a mature software company, and yes, software is obviously still a huge part of the business. But that is not where the next major growth leg is coming from. Microsoft is aggressively building and leasing AI/data center infrastructure, and that is where the CapEx is going.
The stock has been pressured for two main reasons: heavy spending and the fact that it gets categorized as “software.” But I think that is exactly the opportunity. The market is punishing the CapEx without fully pricing in what that CapEx is building.
Azure growing near 40% is the key point. That is where the spending is going. Microsoft is capacity constrained, not demand constrained. That matters.
Then there is Copilot. I am not saying Copilot is taking ChatGPT’s or Anthropic’s lunch. It is not. But it does not have to. If Copilot adoption continues slowly grinding higher across Office, GitHub, Dynamics, and enterprise workflows, that still grows Microsoft’s top line and deepens its enterprise moat.
I also think sentiment may be shifting. Semis and memory stocks have run very hard, very fast. In this type of market, institutions do not necessarily want to leave AI exposure entirely. They rotate within it. That rotation can move toward familiar, high-quality, “beaten down” mega-cap names. Microsoft fits that setup almost perfectly: best in class, reliable, profitable, safe relative to the space, but still with real AI-driven growth.
Bill Ackman and Pershing Square reportedly taking a multi-billion-dollar stake also matters for sentiment. Whether you like following big investors or not, that kind of position can help reframe how the market looks at MSFT.
On the Gates Foundation selling: please do your own research. This has been planned for years. The foundation is in a long-term wind-down/liquidation phase, with a target to spend down over time, and this should not automatically be interpreted as a negative view on Microsoft’s fundamentals. Bill Gates still personally owns a massive Microsoft stake.
Microsoft is not just an old software giant anymore. It is becoming one of the most important enterprise AI infrastructure companies in the world. The CapEx looks scary in the short term, but if Azure demand, AI monetization, and Copilot adoption keep scaling, this spending could look very smart in hindsight.
There is obvious risk if CapEx keeps rising faster than monetization, free cash flow and valuation multiples can stay pressured. But I think the market is overly focused on the spending side and not giving enough credit to what Microsoft is building.
Not financial advice. Just my take.