NVDA at an all-time high — Jensen was just in Beijing. How are you valuing this?
u/Odd_Veterinarian4381 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 15, 2026 at 08:11
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 27 comments
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Summary
The post discusses NVDA hitting an all-time high amid Jensen Huang joining Trump’s China delegation, weighing strong AI demand and potential China trade tailwinds against rising competition (AMD, Cerebras, hyperscaler custom chips) and export restriction risks.
The author is questioning whether NVDA’s stellar revenue growth is already priced in, and whether to buy at ATH or wait for a pullback — essentially a valuation debate, not a clear trade recommendation.
Quality assessment: Speculative discussion with some factual anchors (price levels, competitive landscape), but lacks deep fundamental analysis or a definitive thesis; more of a reflection than research.
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So Jensen Huang was part of Trump's China delegation this week, and NVDA just hit a new record at $235. Almost 50% up from the October lows around $158.
I've been trying to wrap my head around the valuation here. The AI demand story is intact — hyperscalers are still throwing money at data centers like there's no tomorrow. NVDA is still the default GPU supplier. The China trade talks could open up more semi exports too, which would be a direct tailwind.
But at the same time — the stock is at its highest point ever. Competition is getting real. AMD is catching up on specs, the hyperscalers are all building their own silicon, and Cerebras just IPO'd with a bang (+68% on day one). Not to mention export restrictions to China are still a wildcard regardless of what Trump and Xi discuss.
I look at the revenue growth and it's obviously stellar. But how much of that is already in the price? Can NVDA really keep growing at these rates when the comps get harder every quarter?
Maybe I'm being too cautious and this is one of those situations where the best companies keep surprising to the upside. Or maybe the easy money has been made.
What's your process for valuing a stock like NVDA that's both high-growth and at ATHs? Do you wait for a pullback or just accept that great companies rarely look cheap?