u/iloveaccounting64 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· May 14, 2026 at 04:31
· ⬆ 17 pts
· 💬 49 comments
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Summary
The author argues PayPal (PYPL) is a value trap, claiming its moat (Venmo, Braintree) is weak, revenue growth is deteriorating, and market share is being lost.
They criticize share buybacks as merely offsetting stock-based compensation, call management ineffective, and dismiss the “new CEO” narrative as a lazy excuse.
The post is opinion-driven with some structural reasoning but lacks deep financial data or competitive analysis — more speculation than well-researched DD.
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PYPL bulls like to argue PayPal’s “moat” being Venmo and Braintree - but what moat? Tell me why these 2 products make PayPal defend and gain market share? PayPal’s own lines of businesses are cannibalizing each other.
Historic revenue growth is a joke when you price in further market share deteriorating.
Share buybacks only offsets SBC. Keep convincing yourself this company is a self cannibalist that can buy itself into a multi bagger - it cannot and it will not maintain the same multiples.
Management team sucks and the thesis of : New CEO seems to know what they are doing is a lame and lazy excuse and was used on every new CEO. And corporate culture has been garbage and no top talent would join. This is a structural issue with the business - much bigger than ur share buyback and stable revenue fantasy. The company will do worse and worse and the stock price will follow.
Even the clown Michael burry bought - well the same buy bought GameStop and sold for a loss and lost more money shorting NVDA. He makes more money selling monthly subscriptions than his trading activities.
Revenue growth is weakening, market share is declining, and internal cannibalization is occurring; buybacks just offset SBC without real value creation. If the structural issues persist, PYPL’s earnings power and multiple will compress, creating a short opportunity as the market gradually reprices the stock lower. Short PYPL based on deteriorating fundamentals and lack of a sustainable moat, expecting continued downside as growth disappoints. A new CEO could execute a successful turnaround; fintech sector sentiment could improve; short squeezes on high short interest.
This Reddit post, published May 14, 2026,
features u/iloveaccounting64
discussing PYPL.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.