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Currently only 3 companies make HBM4, the biggest bottleneck of the entire AI build. Samsung, SK, and MU. Samsungs union walked away from talks last night, strike window is set for5/21 to 6/7, 18 days of the worlds biggest memory fab going dark. Once shutdown, tooling recalibration on these lines take WEEKS not days.
SK already sold out their DRAM, NAND, and HBM thru end of 2026 to NVDA. Locked in at contract prices. They get the headline of being #1 HBM but they have nothing left to put on the truck during a spot price spike. MU is in the same boat on HBM specifically, also sold out thru 2026, but the real prize is different. When Samsung goes dark for 18 days during a record memory upcycle, spot DRAM and NAND prices melt up, and MU’s 2027 contract negotiations happen with Samsung as the absent third bidder at the table. MU also has more standard DRAM and NAND flex than SK does right now.
Add to it MU has US based fabs, zero Korea labor exposure, and no Korean governance discount baked into the multiple. They have been shipping HBM3E to NVDA in volume since 2024 so the qualification work is long done. If your a hyperscaler scrambling for memory during the strike, you call the guys in Boise who can ship, not the guys in Pyeongtaek who cant.
Last thing, MU trades on US exchanges through any US discount broker, where as US retail still only has indirect SK exposure thru ETFs. That asymmetric access flows straight into MU’s multiple when the trade goes viral on here.
My thesis, MU is going to $1300. HBM is running approx 80% margins and mix keeps climbing every quarter. As HBM eats more of the revenue stack your blended earnings power gets to $80+ EPS run rate easy. $1300 is barely 16x at that point, and def reachable this year if the market feels AI super cycle holds thru 2027. Better hop on the ride while it is still under 800.
1200 shares at $464 and 100 shares at $381