Every big tech is green from the beginning of the year, except MSFT. And it crushed earnings twice this year. I just don't understand.
u/BeneficialBear ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· May 11, 2026 at 13:38
· ⬆ 58 pts
· 💬 39 comments
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Summary
The post argues that Microsoft (MSFT) is the only big tech stock down YTD despite two strong earnings beats, and the market’s fears about OpenAI dependency and data-center spending are misguided.
The author believes even a complete failure of OpenAI would not materially hurt MSFT, and the data-center capex is actually a positive for Azure growth, not a risk.
The thesis is that MSFT is undervalued relative to peers and the bear case is based on “stupid” reasoning that analysts have failed to refute.
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And I think that analyst do not either. Almost everybody talks about "fears due to collaboration with OpenAI" and "cost of raising data centers for AI". But those reasons are just so stupid.
Even if OpenAI flips, it won't hurt microsoft a little bit. It's like their windows phone i 2015, if it goes smoothly great, if not, who cares, company will still dominate corpo market.
About data centers - main growth comes from Azure which is still expanding every year, if MSFT won't use these data centers for AI, then it will use it for Azure, so spending so much money on them should be see as good thing for future growth, not a risk.
MSFT crushed earnings twice this year yet remains the only big tech stock in the red YTD, while market worries about OpenAI partnership risk and data-center spending are unfounded. If the author’s counter-argument is correct (OpenAI failure won’t hurt, data center capex fuels Azure), the current discount offers a mispricing opportunity as fundamentals are strong. MSFT is a contrarian buy based on the gap between strong operational performance and overly pessimistic analyst sentiment. OpenAI could be more integral than assumed; data-center spending may pressure margins longer than expected; macro slowdown could hit enterprise cloud spending.
This Reddit post, published May 11, 2026,
features u/BeneficialBear
discussing MSFT.
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