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TLDR; US battery company showing signs of life, Q1 earnings play for Monday, May 11 after hours. Clarksville, TN factory assets moving to new subsidiaries, carve out for potential joint venture with major OEM. Stock is at $2, but check out Oct 2025 if you want to see where this is going ($5+).
https://preview.redd.it/rgnt1hnwo50h1.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d3710d382ed45a68ca541bb5000a8c6f6694755
I threw my YOLO out here three weeks ago, and not much has changed about the play. Timeline has firmed up and my June calls are ready.
$MVST still seems primed for take off. Q1 earnings release this Monday after hours. Got hammered by the Q4 revenue miss and massive inventory impairment in their report from March. Expectations are so low they might as well be priced for bankruptcy.
My DD is about the US subsidiary activity that's way too suspicious given that Oshkosh JV theory that was probably someone's AI fever dream, but seems to have enough hints of truth in it I decided to swing for the fences. Here's what I found in the timeline. I know, smells like AI slop but I've maybe just got a touch of the tism and like linking to hard evidence, yeah? You decide if you believe it or not.
March 16: They report Q4, way under expected revenue, and basically throw the kitchen sink at [their 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001760689/000162828026018264/mvst-20251231.htm). Their new CAO cleaned the books hard. But they had a record quarter in US revenue of $21.5M - matching [import logs](https://www.importyeti.com/company/microvast) that showed lots of MV-C packs arriving in Clarksville, TN. That's where they stash them until delivery to Oshkosh/McNeilus in [Murfreesboro, TN](https://mcneilusgarbagetrucks.com/news/mcneilus-volterra-zsl-wins-2025-coolest-thing-made-in-tennessee-competition). Oshkosh bought 6 months' worth of packs for the [Volterra ZSL refuse trucks](https://media.republicservices.com/2026-04-22-City-of-San-Pablo-Celebrates-Californias-First-Fully-Electric-Residential-Recycling-and-Waste-Collection-Fleet), helping bridge Microvast's US cash situation, which is the sole reason for their 'going concern'. Check out this [service manual for the Volterra ZSL](https://www.refuse.streetsmartparts.com/interactive?technicalPublications=true) if you want to see the hard evidence of Microvast battery packs.
Also in the 10-K: CEO Yang Wu has a 10b5-1 plan adopted from Dec 2025 (when the stock was at $3). It opened on April 1, 2026 and runs until March 2027. No shares have been sold as of today, May 9.
Same guy has a [convertible loan to the company](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001760689/000176068924000021/mvst-20240603.htm) from back when it traded below $0.50 in 2024, the loan matures May 28 (as in 19 days from now). He already has \~85M shares, the loan converts to another \~53M. His 10b5-1 is to sell up to 10M. He's not selling at $2, he's waiting for the big payout that's coming.
Also March 16: Oshkosh files an [8-K regarding their revised credit facility](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000775158/000110465926028611/tm268947d1_8k.htm), they've got about $1.6B in available credit now. Timing is suspicious but not proof. It's just the sort of thing you would do if you were waiting to see your M&A target file their 10-K and deflate their value to a reasonable level.
March 30: Microvast [surrenders their air permit](https://dataviewers.tdec.tn.gov/dataviewers/f?p=19031:34031::::34031:P34031_SITE_ID:10096) at their Clarksville factory, the one that never got finished back in 2023. They aren't planning to produce NMC cells there any more. Just modules/packs from NMC cells produced in China, plus eventually LFP cells/packs - which don't need the toxic solvents (NMP) that require the air permit.
April 3: Microvast [dissolves the old 'Microvast Energy Inc'](https://www.sos.state.co.us/biz/BusinessEntityDetail.do?quitButtonDestination=BusinessEntityResults&nameTyp=ENT&masterFileId=20221681805&entityId2=20221681805&fileId=20261419106&srchTyp=ENTITY) they formed in CO, and [pull out their TX entity 'Microvast Inc'](https://www.sos.state.co.us/biz/BusinessEntityDetail.do?quitButtonDestination=BusinessEntityResults&nameTyp=ENT&masterFileId=20171726797&entityId2=20171726797&fileId=20261419043&srchTyp=ENTITY), leaving the state for good.
April 14: The ['Microvast Technology LLC' formed in DE](https://icis.corp.delaware.gov/ecorp/entitysearch/namesearch.aspx) turns 1 year old (10163790). This is probably their subsidiary where they're going to stash all their best IP/patents. But it has to be 1 year old to avoid legal issues about shell companies and fraudulent conveyance of assets.
April 16: They register a [new 'Microvast Energy Inc' in TN](https://tncab.tnsos.gov/business-entity-search) (where the factory actually lives). They also get a taypayer ID 32105398898 for ['Microvast Technology LLC' in TX](https://comptroller.texas.gov/taxes/franchise/account-status/search/), indicating the subsidiary is now live and being used there (their HQ is near Houston).
May 1: They officially merge the old 'Microvast Energy Inc' from CO [into the new TN version](https://tncab.tnsos.gov/business-entity-search). All the TN assets like the factory and equipment drop down into the clean entity.
May 4-7: They have an [exhibit booth at ACT Expo](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/microvast_cleantransportation-fleettechnologies-electrictrucks-activity-7457413354685534208-5BBS?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABMCZccByLjt97VIG7QjWjZpPDfLWYAhHfw), where all the clean energy tech companies show off trucking and heavy duty uses for batteries. The same week, there's a [leak with a new ad](https://x.com/i/status/2051672221014171761) \- something they've never bothered with making ever since the 2023 collapse and Clarksville factory failure. This ad was playing at ACT Expo - even though the company website hasn't changed in 3 years. Something is cooking.
There was another video leaked, since removed from the internet, that showed a new product they're making for packs in school buses. These packs use LFP cells - the exact tech they're planning to make at Clarksville for both ESS and vehicles. You can see a picture of them in that LinkedIn post, the blue cells on the booth table.
Oh, and since March they've been posting jobs on both a [recruiter version of ADP](https://workforcenow.cloud.adp.com/mascsr/default/mdf/recruitment/recruitment.html?cid=b0e5df23-a4b7-4fd7-bda3-64af4a3a194d&ccId=19000101_000001) and a [public version](https://workforcenow.cloud.adp.com/mascsr/default/mdf/recruitment/recruitment.html?cid=b0e5df23-a4b7-4fd7-bda3-64af4a3a194d&ccId=19000101_000003&lang=en_US&selectedMenuKey=CurrentOpenings). They're not acting like a company about to run out of money in the US.
They've got until July 15 to pay a $43M [settlement to Clenera](https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/DocumentList?docketId=%2FYuVQBZJVdd2sd08fOgnXg%3D%3D&narrow=true), the result of a customer advance from back when they were trying to [sell energy storage back in 2022](https://ir.microvast.com/news-releases/news-release-details/microvast-wins-contract-supply-12gwh-battery-energy-storage). Where the hell are they getting $43M in US cash in just two months?
They have an [active ATM offering](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001760689/000094787125000881/ss5415550_8k.htm). They used only $27.9M of it back in Q4 (when stock was $4+), and haven't used it since.
The [13F filings keep piling up](https://13f.info/cusip/59516C106) with institutions. Someone knows something.
Bottom line: This stock could fall 50% or run 200%, depending on whether they execute on their US asset carve out plans and find a buyer. But the timeline is pressured into being soon, because of the May 28 loan maturity and the July 15 settlement payments.
I'm a degenerate gambler who thinks they pull it off this month (or by June at the latest).
Whatever happens, it's not staying at $2 for long. Buy a straddle if you can't make up your mind. I'm going with the upside.