u/willbabu ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· May 09, 2026 at 13:50
· ⬆ 70 pts
· 💬 74 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post argues that Micron (MU) has more upside despite a massive rally, driven by HBM shortages, record revenue guidance, and S&P 100 inclusion.
The author’s thesis rests on hyperscaler demand exceeding supply, rising EPS revisions, and a still-reasonable forward multiple.
The analysis is well-researched DD with fundamental data and explicit positions, though it lacks discussion of cyclical risks or margin peaks.
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**Last Thursday at 510 I said institutions were rotating into MU. Wednesday at 640 I said it was heating up and got dismissed by some doofus called me an oracle. It’s now 746, 757 AH. Now I’m making a case that this run aint over.**
**Last quarter MU did 24B in revenue, up 196 percent yoy, with non-GAAP of 12.20, that a fucking 682% jump and 33% beat. Management guided next quarter to around 33.5b in revenue. Thats a 10 billion dollar sequential jump from a memory company, which is nuts. HBM is sold out thru all of 2026 including HBM4, with pricing and volume already locked in. CEO straight up said customers are only getting “50 to two-thirds of their requirements.” Thats a shortage, not a sales pitch. Picture deep pockets like nvda fighting with aapl fighting with avgo over MU memory, that’s a place you want to be. If you don’t believe me pull up what hyperscalers are saying. Msft pegged memory at a 25B cost hit. Meta blamed it for higher 2026 capex. Amzn said costs “skyrocketed.” Tim Apple called it a “prolonged memory crisis.” When the people writing the checks tell you they cant get enough, you listen.**
**Street is catching up but not done. DA Davidson initiated at 1000. And MU got added to the SP 100 in March which means index funds gotta keep buying whether they like it or not.**
**Naysayers will say but but but cyclical or it’s already had a run up, my response is sold HBM, hyperscalers with almost infinite money doing battle royale to grab as much MU goodies as they can for themselves, rising EPS revisions, reasonable forward multiple, calling the top here is fighting a freight train, and go look in the mirror as to why you didn’t buy MU when it was 300, 400, 500, 600 etc. June earnings is gonna be crazy, and the momentum between now and earning is up. LFG!**
**My positions: 1200 shares at $464 100 shares at $381**
MU’s HBM is sold out through 2026; customers are only receiving 50–66% of their requirements, and hyperscalers (MSFT, META, AMZN, AAPL) explicitly cite a prolonged memory crisis. This structural shortage drives pricing power and revenue upside. Management guided ~$33.5B next quarter (a $10B sequential jump), and 196% YoY revenue growth shows acceleration, not peaking. The market is still underpricing the duration of the HBM cycle. With S&P 100 inclusion forcing index fund buying and analyst targets rising (DA Davidson $1,000), the path of least resistance is higher into June earnings. Semiconductor cyclicality is real; MU has already run 8x in the past year; any demand slowdown from hyperscalers or a shift in capex could reverse gains. Parabolic moves often correct sharply.