is Micron Technology a Hold or Sell at its current levels? (MU)

MU has rallied from $250 to current levels; author sees little upside unless earnings keep breaking records. Meanwhile, a potential Samsung strike (18 days) could cut supply, pushing orders to Micron and SK Hynix, supporting near-term pricing. The combination of high valuation and a possible supply shock creates a binary event – a strike would be bullish, a no-strike would leave MU exposed to cyclical peak fears. This uncertainty argues for a neutral/hold stance with a stop-loss trigger. Hold existing positions (or trim partial) given the asymmetric risk/reward; the Samsung strike outcome on Monday/Tuesday is the key catalyst. Avoid adding new longs at these levels. (i) Strike fails to materialize, sending MU down on supply glut fears. (ii) DRAM cycle turns earlier than expected due to overcapacity. (iii) Macro weakness hits AI capex.