I just invested $25,000 in... eggs ($VITL)

I_killed_the_kraken · 2026-04-30T18:49:18+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The author u/I_killed_the_kraken is pitching a long position in Vital Farms ($VITL) after a 76% decline from highs due to avian flu, arguing that egg prices are recovering, the company’s fundamentals are solid (P/E 8.8, negligible debt, positive margins), and broader food shortages will boost premium egg demand. - He also cites rising oil prices, inflation, fertilizer shortages, and a Palantir-USDA deal as catalysts for a food supply crunch that should make eggs valuable. - Quality assessment: Speculation with some fundamental data (P/E, debt, margins) but relies heavily on narrative about shortages and price recovery; not rigorous institutional DD, but shows some effort. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === VITL - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.85 Speaker: u/I_killed_the_kraken Thesis: 1. THE FACT: VITL trades at P/E ~8.8, has negligible debt and positive margins; stock is down 76% from ATH due to avian flu, but egg prices have dropped 97% from recent highs and appear to be bottoming. 2. THE BRIDGE: If egg prices stabilize or rise, VITL’s premium brand should see revenue recovery; combined with broader food inflation and government attention (Palantir-USDA deal), shortages could drive margins higher. 3. THE VERDICT: The author believes the stock is deeply undervalued relative to normalized earnings and that a consolidation pattern is forming for a trend reversal. 4. RISKS: Avian flu resurgence, further declines in egg demand, rising chicken feed costs (fertilizer shortage could raise feed prices), potential recession cutting premium food spending. Timeframe: medium-term (3-12 months) Key Points: - P/E 8.8 with no debt is attractive - Stock down 76% from highs on temporary shock - Egg prices falling 97% suggests bottom near - Fertilizer/feed cost risk not fully addressed - Retail sentiment appears meme-driven but positive === COMMENTS SUMMARY === Community comments are mostly supportive memes ("I just like eggs," "Can't wait to

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The author u/I_killed_the_kraken is pitching a long position in Vital Farms ($VITL) after a 76% decline from highs due to avian flu, arguing that egg prices are recovering, the company’s fundamentals are solid (P/E 8.8, negligible debt, positive margins), and broader food shortages will boost premium egg demand.
He also cites rising oil prices, inflation, fertilizer shortages, and a Palantir-USDA deal as catalysts for a food supply crunch that should make eggs valuable.
Quality assessment: Speculation with some fundamental data (P/E, debt, margins) but relies heavily on narrative about shortages and price recovery; not rigorous institutional DD, but shows some effort.

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Comments 29

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Ladies and gentlemen, what you are about to read is either one of the most legendary trades in the entire history of r/wallstreebets, or a trade that is going to lose you money (this is probably the correct option).

**Key facts** that led me to this decision:

* Current P/E: **8.80**.
* **Debt**: **negligible**.
* Margins and returns: all **positive**.

The price of $VITL has fallen by about 76% from its recent all-time highs due to the outbreak of avian flu in the US, but now that the situation has been brought under control, **egg prices have dropped by 97% from their recent highs**.

[Source: Trading Economics, as of April 30, 2026](https://preview.redd.it/kz2gr09iadyg1.png?width=1231&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=65eb7d4bf2ad091fa13c361508f98300149666c6)

To be honest, I don't know how much lower egg prices can go, and $VITL is a premium brand, but my Wall Street predator instinct tells me that even Warren Buffett thinks it's undervalued, given that **oil prices are through the roof** and **inflation keeps rising**.

Looking at the chart, and without wanting to brag about my 19-year-old handwriting, I’d say a **consolidation** is taking shape that will reverse the trend of recent months, because obviously American millionaires aren’t going to stop buying **premium eggs** no matter how much inflation rises, right?

[Annual chart](https://preview.redd.it/me1hgtbdcdyg1.png?width=1467&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=ecfd1a0ad4fcb6913bb9652d5f7043d27f39734e)

I think the shorts have had their fun here, and I'd say it's time for the bulls to stop messing around with chips, AI and all that nonsense and really step up to the plate.

Leaders and farmers in several European countries are already talking about food rationing because the fertilizer shortage is making it difficult to cultivate the land, a situation that was also reported a few days ago in the US, where it was announced that “**70% of US farmers say they can't afford the fertilizer they need for this year's growing season**” (according to Forbes).

In fact, on April 22, 2026, **Palantir** reached an agreement with the USDA to “**safeguard the food supply**,” and I'd say they made this decision knowing full well that there would be a shortage.

My only concern here is that chickens need to eat in order to lay eggs, but anyway, I'd say that the shortage will once again **make eggs worth their weight in gold**.

For heaven's sake, check out that **chicken gang** and the slogan on their own website: “**keeping it bullsh\*t free**”... not even the Peaky Blinders pose that well.

[$VITL webite](https://preview.redd.it/u024ag6qidyg1.png?width=1540&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=427eb21e429abcf62c4e4fdaa961644b80d6a454)

Wish me luck, regards:

https://preview.redd.it/wrxr6yylidyg1.png?width=547&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=7bc860c4caa3f0705ab353f114be15f25851bca1

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u/I_killed_the_kraken Reddit r/wallstreetbets

VITL trades at P/E ~8.8, has negligible debt and positive margins; stock is down 76% from ATH due to avian flu, but egg prices have dropped 97% from recent highs and appear to be bottoming. If egg prices stabilize or rise, VITL’s premium brand should see revenue recovery; combined with broader food inflation and government attention (Palantir-USDA deal), shortages could drive margins higher. The author believes the stock is deeply undervalued relative to normalized earnings and that a consolidation pattern is forming for a trend reversal. Avian flu resurgence, further declines in egg demand, rising chicken feed costs (fertilizer shortage could raise feed prices), potential recession cutting premium food spending.

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