u/dutch1664 ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· April 23, 2026 at 04:19
· ⬆ 23 pts
· 💬 9 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post is a bullish call on Redwire ($RDW), claiming the author is up 200% but expects a major price move imminently.
The thesis centers on a technical breakout above $10, the removal of a major shareholder overhang (AE Industrial's block sale), and an undervalued company with strong growth and DoD ties.
Quality assessment: Speculation. The author references external sources for deep due diligence and acknowledges the company's operational flaws, framing it as a short-term trade rather than a long-term investment.
Score23
Comments9
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I posted my Redwire DD previously. I'm up 200% on most of these positions but the big move hasn't happened yet. It's likely to start tomorrow (unless macro screws us).
For actual company DD I strongly recommend SpaceInvestor and ScottO on Twitter. I'll just highlight a couple points.
1) Technical breakout is just starting. Pull up a chart on $RDW, you'll see it. The stocks has been held around $10 and now it's clear sailing up to $30+
2) AE Industrial held over 30% of the company and has been selling for months, this has capped it around $10. Today, they got rid of all their remaing shares in a single private block sale after hours. This removes the single biggest negative for the company.
3) Management. You're going to hear people say management sucks - they are missing the forest for the trees. The company doesn't demand a premium for management, even if you discount management it's still insanely undervalued. Management isn't the best but they have good ties to DoD which is where the money is. There is a lot of super bright people in the company at the product level. They have so many class leasing products and opportunities to win in various areas. Bottom line: There is more to the company than the CEO - he isn't even that bad, he just isn't Peter Beck or Elon Musk. Oh well, the company is $2B and doing $450M/year and growing.
Also: They suck. They have a habit of bad quarterlys, this is not a core holding. It's just a trade. People complain because they are PE backed. They are in it to make money, just like me. No emotional trade here. Pure greed.
Target $30-$50
AE Industrial sold its remaining shares in a private block sale, removing a persistent selling pressure that had capped the stock near $10. With this overhang gone and a technical breakout underway, the stock is poised to re-rate toward its intrinsic value given its $450M revenue and growth profile. The stock is significantly undervalued at a ~$2B market cap, with a near-term price target of $30-$50. Macroeconomic conditions, poor quarterly earnings reports, and management execution issues could derail the move.