u/Red_Ochre_Music ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· April 18, 2026 at 16:09
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 30 comments
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Summary
The author theorizes that a liquidity drain from a SpaceX IPO will force OpenAI and Anthropic to go public, revealing poor financials and popping the AI hype bubble.
As pure-play AI labs crash, the author predicts SaaS companies (Adobe, Snowflake, Salesforce) will see massive valuation increases as they successfully monetize LLM integrations.
Quality assessment: Speculation. The post is a macro/thematic theory without specific financial data, valuation metrics, or concrete evidence to support the claims about private company financials.
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I have a theory. **Please shoot holes in it.**
The SpaceX IPO threatens to hoover up a large volume of the available money on the open market. This forces both Anthropic and OpenAI to go public, and to do it sooner rather than later.
Neither Anthropic or OpenAI are remotely profitable and are overstating their revenue. Additionally, there CapEx is through the roof and will be for some time. If they go public and investors finally get a look at their S-1s they will fall hard. But if they don't IPO they will run out of money.
So, the two big and most well-known AI labs are going to run into the brick wall of reality before the year is out.
While this playing out SaaS companies will be incorporating LLMs into their products in real and impactful ways.
This will be the inflection point when the market comes to its senses and all those companies written off as doomed will catapult in value. Adobe, Snowflake, Salesforce etc.
Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta will take a slight hit as the market becomes just as irrationally pessimistic about AI as it was irrationally optimistic. But these companies, especially Google, will be developing and implementing AI in new ways that we have not for seen. AI beyond LLMs that won't be just hype (like Isomorphic Labs and AlphaFold).
Salesforce is deploying AI across its enterprise software suite. As the market becomes disillusioned with unprofitable AI research labs, it will reward enterprise software companies with real AI revenue streams. Long CRM as a beneficiary of the shift from AI infrastructure/research hype to SaaS application reality. Enterprise software budgets could tighten if a broader market correction occurs.
Google is developing AI beyond just LLMs (e.g., Isomorphic Labs, AlphaFold). Big tech will take a short-term hit when the AI bubble bursts due to irrational pessimism, creating a buying opportunity for companies with real, non-hype AI tech. Watch Google for a dip to buy, as its long-term AI prospects outside of LLMs remain highly robust. The short-term hit from the AI bubble bursting could be deeper and longer than anticipated.
Snowflake is actively incorporating LLMs into its data cloud products. The market has currently written off many SaaS companies, but will realize their value once the pure AI lab hype dies down. Buy Snowflake ahead of the market's realization of its practical AI utility. Snowflake's consumption-based revenue model might suffer if broader tech spending contracts during a bubble burst.
SaaS companies are incorporating LLMs into their products in real, impactful ways. When the pure-play AI hype bubble bursts, the market will rotate capital into SaaS companies that are actually monetizing AI, causing their valuations to catapult. Go long on Adobe as it benefits from the market realizing the practical value of AI integration in SaaS. The AI bubble bursting could drag down the entire tech sector, including SaaS, regardless of fundamental integration.
This Reddit post, published April 18, 2026,
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discussing CRM, GOOGL, SNOW, ADBE.
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