Ceasefire rally… but markets aren’t fully buying it.

There is a lot going on below the surface so lets me break down what is driving the market right now. S&P 500 futures moved solidly higher at the open with news of a two-week U.S. – Iran ceasefire pending. At a high level, this is a textbook “risk-on” catalyst: \- It lowers immediate geopolitical risk \- Bargains time for a longer-term agreement \- And importantly, Iran allowing ships through the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices lower That last part is huge, dropping oil prices helps ease inflation pressure and reduces the risk of broader economic disorder. So, it makes sense equities are responding positively. Though what is interesting is what’s happening across other markets: \- Treasuries are up \- Gold is also up Therefore, while equities are pricing in phasedown, there’s still a noticeable proposition for safety. To me, that suggests this isn’t a full “all-clear” indicator, more like careful optimism. And on top of all that, the market is waiting on the latest Fed minutes to release later today, which could swing rate expectations pretty quickly. Curious how others are reading this: Is this the start to the market moving higher? Or just a relief rally off geopolitical headlines?