Investing in a world without freedom of navigation (tolls setup on Strait of Hormuz and potentially others), reiterated

Last week I made a post trying to estimate the cost on global trade from tolls on the Strait of Hormuz: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1s9e35g/investing_in_a_world_without_freedom_of/ > Assume 2% toll. > 20 M bpd. 70$ a barrel. > 20*70 =1,400 million $ a day= 1.4B a day > 2% is $28M a day > 365 * 28 =10,220 M = $10B a year > Iran current defense budget: Also about $10B a year. > And that's just oil. There's also LNG, fertilizer, aluminum, helium and other commodities that come in and out of the region. The Gulf states are heavily reliant on food imports. > Iran could also increase the tolls over time if left uncontested. And there's always the uncertainty of Iran seizing a vessel that failed their "toll audit". > The other implication is other countries may be emboldened to do the same in the future, such as a toll on the Red Sea, or Strait of Malacca which is the world's busiest shipping lane. Which country is going to implement said toll is not the question, it's whether if the US or others would militarily challenge it. > Right now I'm treating the tolls as essentially a tariff on all exports and imports for the countries reliant on the strait. > For the US, it would be a gain for the domestic oil producers as they would be competing against what is essentially tariff'ed Gulf oil. A negative for everything else, such as the US agriculture importing a large volume of fertilizers from the Gulf states (farm input costs increase -> food prices increase) or the global semiconductor industry that is reliant on the helium. A change to last week's analysis was Oman also participating in the toll collection (no idea where that money is going), but that does confirm my suspicion of other countries looking at their straits as potential toll booths. Biggest risk I see is this toll becoming accepted for the next few decades as a permanent tariff on global trade. Taking away Iran's lucrative toll booth in the future would reignite a conflict, and future presidents would be hesitant of repeating what the current POTUS did.