u/Potato_Masher_69420 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· April 07, 2026 at 03:36
· ⬆ 17 pts
· 💬 10 comments
| View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary
Summary
The author pitches Life Time Group Holdings ($LTH) as a high-conviction value stock with the potential for a 3-5x return.
The thesis is supported by strong fundamental growth (revenue, net income, margins), robust demand (waitlists, increased customer spend), a $500M share buyback, and a discounted valuation compared to peer PLNT.
I finally did it, I found what I would consider a real value stock. This is the first company I have found where I can see a clear path to a 3-5x return. The company is Life Time Group Holdings ($LTH). It is a high-end health and fitness club that should thrive in the K-shaped economy.
Here's a quick summary:
4/6/2026 Market Cap: 6.20B P/E ratio: 16.76 Forward P/E 14.16
Revenue:
2023 2.22B
2024 2.62B
2025 3.00B
Net Cash Flow from Operations
2023 463.0 million
2024 575.12 million
2025 870.52 million
Net Income:
2023 76.06 million
2024 156.24 million
2025 373.67 million
Profit Margin:
2023- 3%
2024- 6%
2025- 12%
Shareholder Equity:
2023 2.25B
2024 2.61B
2025 3.13B
They currently operate over 180 locations in the United States and plan on opening 12-14 new locations in 2026 and 12-14 more in 2027.\*
30% of their locations have a waitlist to join.
Average annual customer spend has increased from $2,810 in 2023 to $3,351 in 2025.
Comparable center growth is expected to be 6-7%.
Recently announced a $500 million share repurchase program representing about 9% of outstanding shares at the current market cap.
The founder is still CEO and holds approx 10% of outstanding shares. Insiders hold a total of 15%.
PLNT is another health and fitness company that has been experiencing similar growth to LTH over the last 5 years, it trades at a P/E multiple of 28! That's a potential 60% increase just from valuation parity.
I have to disclose that I did open a position in $LTH today at $27.50.
If you have any comments or questions please let me know.
\* 2026 earnings will be affected by 6-7 locations opening in Q4 2026. ($1.61-$1.64 '26 est. vs. 1.66 '25)
LTH has demonstrated massive growth in net income and profit margins (3% to 12%) from 2023-2025, alongside a $500M buyback program and 15% insider ownership. Despite strong growth and high-end market positioning (30% of clubs have waitlists), LTH trades at a P/E of 16.76, significantly lower than peer PLNT's P/E of 28, creating a clear valuation gap. Go long on LTH for multiple expansion and continued fundamental growth in the K-shaped economy. A severe macroeconomic downturn could impact high-end consumer spending; earnings drag from new location openings in late 2026.
This Reddit post, published April 07, 2026,
features u/Potato_Masher_69420
discussing LTH.
1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.