90 days live trading & 800 trades - Who is more ratinal AI Agents or Polymarket?

As requested, here’s an update on our live paper trading results. Since the last post, the main change is that MiniMax has continued to generate profits, while the other models have mostly moved sideways. Would be great to see how MiniMax 2.7 would perform (coming soon). What we’re testing is whether AI agents are more rational than the Polymarket crowd, which is often seen as one of the most efficient sources of market-based probabilities. So far, the results suggest a different story. All models were able to front-run Polymarket by trading whenever the AI model’s implied odds differed by more than 15 percentage points from Polymarket’s odds. For example: * If the AI model estimates an outcome at 30% while Polymarket prices it at 10%, we go long yes and close the position the next day. * For the opposite setup, we buy no. These results may be a useful benchmark for what is currently possible with this type of trading approach. We’ve also set up the live trading infrastructure so we can start testing this with real money on a small scale, including trading costs, to get closer to real-world conditions. I’ll keep you posted. Soure: [https://oraclemarkets.io/leaderboard](https://oraclemarkets.io/leaderboard)