How are you guys adapting trend following algos to this choppy 2026 market? My win rate dropped 40% since January
u/MathRevolutionary825 ·
Reddit — r/algotrading
· April 01, 2026 at 20:41
· ⬆ 15 pts
· 💬 34 comments
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Summary
Author reports a severe degradation in performance of their trend-following algorithms on ES and NQ futures starting late 2025, with a 40% drop in win rate in 2026's choppy market.
The author is soliciting community feedback on adaptation techniques, specifically regarding mean-reversion overlays, regime detection methods, and position/asset allocation changes.
Quality assessment: Speculation. This is a discussion prompt from a practitioner experiencing issues, not a presentation of well-researched due diligence.
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How are you guys adapting trend following algos to this choppy 2026 market? My win rate dropped 40% since January
Been running a momentum-based trend following strategy on ES and NQ futures for 2 years. Historically solid Sharpe (\\\~1.8), but 2026 or to be precise from near end of 2025 has been brutal.
I have tried:
1. Tightened stops
2. Loosened stops
3. Added ADX filter (>25)
My Questions:
1. Are you running mean-reversion overlays during suspected chop?
2. What regime detection are you using? (HMM, volatility percentiles, something else?)
3. Have you reduced position sizing across the board or rotating to different asset classes?