With the US-Iran ceasefire rumors flying, what happens if the war actually continues? A look into the "Hungerwinter of '26/'27"

There’s been a massive amount of noise over the last few days about a potential US-Iran ceasefire. Betting markets like Polymarket have seen a massive spike in wagers on an imminent peace deal, and Trump recently pitched a 15-point proposal to end the conflict. However, the diplomatic reality is incredibly messy. Just today, Iran’s Foreign Ministry completely dismissed Trump’s claims that they want a ceasefire as "baseless." Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has made it clear that Tehran isn't looking for a temporary pause, but rather a permanent end to the war on their own terms, without direct talks. Add in the fact that the IRGC just reiterated their firm control over the Strait of Hormuz, and an immediate off-ramp seems far from guaranteed. So, what if the back-channels fail and this conflict drags on? I just published a deep-dive article on my Substack exploring exactly that scenario. I call it "The Hungerwinter of '26/'27." In the piece, I break down the severe cascading consequences if the war continues into the later parts of the year. If the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, or if energy infrastructures remain in the crosshairs, the fallout will not be contained to the Middle East. We would be looking at massive disruptions in global supply chains, an aggressive energy crunch, and severe macroeconomic shockwaves just as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter. I’d love to get your thoughts on this.