Why I remain an S&P BEAR after this morning's Department of Defense press briefing
u/ub3rm3nsch ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· March 31, 2026 at 13:33
· ⬆ 144 pts
· 💬 130 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post is a bearish market thesis based on escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict, specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The author's core argument is that geopolitical risk is underpriced, oil supply disruptions will persist for months, and the S&P 500 will continue to slide.
Quality assessment: This is speculation based on the interpretation of military/political rhetoric, not financial or economic data-driven DD.
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Fixed the title because I am still waking up and put "bull" instead of "bear". Need to finish my coffee.
I watched Pete Hegseth and General Keane's press briefing this morning at 8 am.
Pete Hegseth said:
\* Last night alone, there were 200 "dynamic strikes".
\* That if Iran is wise they will cut a deal, and if they are not willing the Department of War will continue with "more intensity"
\* The war will end on the US's terms and the US will continue to "negotiate with bombs" until the US gets what it wants.
\* Boots on the ground aren't being ruled out.
General Keane said:
\* Joint force continues to focus on military operations.
\* Have STARTED to conduct B54 missions.
\* Working attack helicopters into campaign.
\* Continue to prosecute military campaigns at industrial capacity.
Anyone dumb enough to believe Trump is going to withdraw when the Strait of Hormuz is closed, after marshaling 50,000 troops to CENTCOM, rather than interpreting his statements to be a very obvious threat to goad the European and Gulf States into contributing to the military operations, is going to get burned hard.
Continue to hold cash. Continue to hold short term OXY calls. Continue to believe oil deliveries are at best months from resuming through Hormuz. Continue to believe in a continued slide, despite the "Trump put" that always hits when WTI front month futures cross $100 (and hello Barclay's analyst who stole my phrase).
Author explicitly states holding short-term OXY calls, believing oil deliveries are months from resuming due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. A prolonged supply shock from a major chokepoint should drive oil prices higher, benefiting oil producers like Occidental Petroleum. Geopolitical escalation is seen as a direct catalyst for higher oil prices and OXY's stock price in the short term. Rapid diplomatic resolution, U.S. policy reversal, or the market pricing in the risk prematurely. Alternative oil routes or releases from strategic reserves could also mitigate price impact.