Recession, ai bubble, dippy dip. What are your plans for the next 3 months?

u/Cow_cat11 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · March 21, 2026 at 04:24 · ⬆ 20 pts · 💬 35 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Summary

  • The author is holding cash and waiting for a 9% to 15% market pullback from recent highs to deploy capital into the broader market.
  • They anticipate a deflation of the AI, data center, and energy bubbles over the next 6-8 months, while noting that beaten-down large-cap SaaS stocks might rebound and provide a market floor.
  • Quality assessment: Speculation and market timing based on recent price action, historical pullback percentages, and macro fears, rather than deep fundamental value analysis.
Score 20
Comments 35
Upvote % 86%
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Trade Ideas
u/Cow_cat11 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
SPY has pulled back from its 697 high to around 649. Historical patterns from the last three dips suggest a ~9% pullback (around the 630 level) is a strong support zone and buying opportunity. Scale into SPY on dips, buying heavily if it reaches the 630 area. Global recession risks, job stagnation, or prolonged geopolitical conflicts could drive the market down further to a 10-15% drop.
u/Cow_cat11 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
AI and data center stocks have run up 3–10x across big and small caps. These valuations are highly stretched ("a lot of air to give back") and are likely to follow the pattern of previous hype cycles like the 2024 SaaS run-up. Expect a slow deflation and downside in AI/tech high-flyers over the next 6-8 months. AI hype continues longer than expected or sector rotation keeps the broader tech index elevated.
u/Cow_cat11 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Large-cap SaaS stocks (like MSFT, ADBE, ORCL) have already been beaten down due to AI fears. Because they are rotationally diverse, money leaving overhyped sectors may rotate back into these established, beaten-down names. Monitor large-cap SaaS for a rebound as capital rotates out of overextended AI hardware/energy plays. Broader market recession drags down all tech stocks regardless of previous corrections.
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This Reddit post, published March 21, 2026, features u/Cow_cat11 discussing SPY, XLK, MSFT. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Cow_cat11  · Tickers: SPY, XLK, MSFT