Do Americans realize how poorly their stock market has performed since Trump took office?

No_Purpose8162 · 2026-03-20T18:50:34+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The author, a European investor, argues that the U.S. stock market's performance since January 2025 has been poor when measured in EUR, suggesting that any USD gains are primarily due to currency devaluation under the Trump administration. - The author's thesis is that the perceived strength of the U.S. market is an illusion created by a weakening dollar, and the "real" performance is negative for international investors. - Quality assessment: This is speculation and political commentary, not well-researched due diligence. The author's analysis is based on a very short time frame (less than 3 months) and a single data point (their personal ETF return in EUR), making it anecdotal noise rather than a robust market analysis. === SENTIMENT === BEARISH === TRADE IDEAS === SPY - AVOID | confidence: 0.70 | sentiment: -0.30 Speaker: u/No_Purpose8162 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: The S&P 500 is down -1.8% in EUR terms since January 2025, implying that USD-denominated gains are being eroded by currency devaluation. 2. THE BRIDGE: The author believes the market's performance is overstated and driven by currency manipulation rather than fundamental strength, making it an unattractive investment from a non-USD perspective. 3. THE VERDICT: The post implies a bearish or at least cautious stance on the S&P 500, suggesting that the "real" returns are negative and the market is not as strong as it appears to US-based investors. 4. RISKS: The timeframe is extremely short (less than one quarter). Market performance could rebound. The currency effect could reverse. The author's premise that performance is solely due to devaluation may be incorrect. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - S&P 500 performance is negative in EUR terms YTD. - Author attributes this to USD devaluation. - Implies the market is fundamentally weak. - Suggests US market is not an attractive investment now. === COMMENTS SUMMARY === The community reaction is largely political and dismissive of the post's f

AI Summary

Summary

The author, a European investor, argues that the U.S. stock market's performance since January 2025 has been poor when measured in EUR, suggesting that any USD gains are primarily due to currency devaluation under the Trump administration.
The author's thesis is that the perceived strength of the U.S. market is an illusion created by a weakening dollar, and the "real" performance is negative for international investors.
Quality assessment: This is speculation and political commentary, not well-researched due diligence. The author's analysis is based on a very short time frame (less than 3 months) and a single data point (their personal ETF return in EUR), making it anecdotal noise rather than a robust market analysis.

Score 570

Comments 249

Upvote % 85%

▶ Full Post Text

Ideas

u/No_Purpose8162 Reddit r/stocks

The S&P 500 is down -1.8% in EUR terms since January 2025, implying that USD-denominated gains are being eroded by currency devaluation. The author believes the market's performance is overstated and driven by currency manipulation rather than fundamental strength, making it an unattractive investment from a non-USD perspective. The post implies a bearish or at least cautious stance on the S&P 500, suggesting that the "real" returns are negative and the market is not as strong as it appears to US-based investors. The timeframe is extremely short (less than one quarter). Market performance could rebound. The currency effect could reverse. The author's premise that performance is solely due to devaluation may be incorrect.

Summary

▶ Full Post Text

Ideas

More from Reddit — r/stocks