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I've spent a stupid amount of time researching NVO lately and honestly the gap between what's actually happening with this company and where the stock is trading is getting absurd.
**Wegovy HD just got FDA approved.** This literally happened yesterday. 20.7% mean weight loss, a third of patients hitting 25%+. It was the first ever approval under the FDA's National Priority Voucher programme, which means the FDA themselves consider this a critical national health priority. Launching in April through 70,000+ pharmacies. This basically closes the efficacy gap with Zepbound that bears have been screaming about for months. [Source](https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=916516)
**Semaglutide reduces major cardiovascular events by 20%.** The landmark SELECT trial, published in the New England Journal of Medicine with 17,600 patients across 41 countries, showed semaglutide cut the risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack and stroke by 20% in people with obesity who don't even have diabetes. And separately, CNBC reported this week that stopping GLP-1s actually raises the risk of heart attack, stroke and death. Let that sink in for a second. Patients literally can't quit these drugs safely. That's not a product with a demand problem. That's lifetime recurring revenue backed by hard clinical data. [SELECT trial](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2307563) | [CNBC: stopping GLP-1s raises CV risk](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/stopping-glp-1s-raises-cardiovascular-risks-study.html)
**The WHO put out a warning that global GLP-1 production will reach fewer than 10% of people who need them by 2030.** They released their first ever guideline on GLP-1s, called them a "scientific breakthrough", and recommended them for long-term obesity treatment. But even with all the manufacturing expansion happening right now, supply won't come close to meeting demand for years. Over 1 billion people globally could benefit from these drugs. We are so early it's not even funny. [WHO guideline](https://www.who.int/news/item/01-12-2025-who-issues-global-guideline-on-the-use-of-glp-1-medicines-in-treating-obesity)
**New pregnancy safety data just dropped and it's reassuring.** A huge Danish nationwide study covering 756,000+ pregnancies published in Human Reproduction Open found that women using GLP-1s for weight management showed zero increased risk of complications or preterm birth. This has been a major overhang because so many reproductive age women are now on these drugs. That risk is getting de-risked in real time. [Full study](https://academic.oup.com/hropen/article/2026/2/hoag015/8526483?login=false)
**The semaglutide market is projected to hit $86 billion by 2034.** Fortune Business Insights put out a full market report showing growth from $34.5B to $86B at a 10.27% CAGR. Novo dominates this space. The U.S. alone is 61% of revenues. The branded segment still has a massive commercial lead. [Market report](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/semaglutide-market-115771)
**Novo's product portfolio is now the most complete in the industry.** They've got the Wegovy pill (launched January), Wegovy 2.4mg injectable, and now Wegovy HD 7.2mg. Oral for people who hate needles, standard injectable, high dose for maximum results. Nobody else has that full range right now. [Wegovy pill launch](https://www.novonordisk.com/content/nncorp/global/en/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=916516)
**AGM is next Wednesday and the dividend ex-date is March 30.** CEO Doustdar gets to walk into that shareholder meeting with two fresh product launches under his belt. The $1.275 dividend payout works out to nearly 5% yield at current prices. You can stream the AGM live on Novo's website at 14:00 CET if you want to hear management's tone for yourself. [AGM details and webcast](https://www.novonordisk.com/investors/agm-divider.html)
**Bernstein just initiated coverage with a $175 price target.** That's Sanford C. Bernstein, not some random Substack. Outperform rating. 368% upside from here. You can argue the number but that's a serious shop making a serious contrarian call when everyone else is running scared. [Source](https://www.themarketsdaily.com/2026/03/18/novo-nordisk-a-s-nysenvo-coverage-initiated-by-analysts-at-sanford-c-bernstein.html)
**And then there's the valuation.** P/E of 10.8x when the pharma industry average is 18x. Forward P/E of 10. Price to sales of 0.56. Return on equity of 69%. Net margins of 33%. Multiple DCF models put fair value between $70 and $97. You are buying a company that owns 62% of the GLP-1 market, sitting at the centre of an $86 billion TAM growing at 10%+ annually, for a valuation that implies the franchise is basically dead. It's not dead. Not even close. [MarketBeat fundamentals](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NVO/) | [Simply Wall St valuation](https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nyse-nvo/novo-nordisk/news/assessing-novo-nordisk-nysenvo-valuation-after-a-steep-multi)
**The $15 billion buyback is running every single day.** They've already bought back 6.6 million shares since February and because the price keeps dropping they're getting more shares per krone than they originally planned. Capital Markets Day is September 21 where they'll lay out the full long term strategy. [Latest buyback update](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/03/16/3256058/0/en/Novo-Nordisk-A-S-share-repurchase-programme.html) | [CMD and events calendar](https://www.novonordisk.com/investors/financial-results.html)
I know the bear case. Pricing pressure, Lilly competition, the FDA warning letter, ugly 2026 guidance. It's all real and I'm not dismissing any of it. But this stock has gone from $142 to $37. At some point the bad news is in the price and the good news starts to matter. I think we're at that point. A 10x P/E on a company with these margins, this market position, and this much runway ahead of it is not rational. The market is pricing in a worst case scenario that the fundamentals simply don't support.