u/Waitwhonow ·
Reddit — r/stocks
· March 18, 2026 at 19:27
· ⬆ 275 pts
· 💬 62 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The post summarizes the author's takeaways from a recent Jerome Powell press conference, highlighting four major economic shocks (COVID, Ukraine war, tariffs, Middle East crisis) that have impacted the economy.
The author's thesis is that the US economy has been remarkably resilient despite these shocks, largely due to effective Fed leadership, and that underlying fundamentals like productivity growth are strong.
Quality assessment: This is a speculative summary and personal interpretation of a Fed press conference, not well-researched due diligence. It reflects the author's own biases and high-level understanding.
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And to summarize on a very high level. Non political perspective( and paraphrasing what was said at the press conference)
The current Inflation(core) was due to Tariff Shock that is still going through the economy.
Tariffs are considered as a 1 time price shock( provided more are not added) and there are some positive consensus within the FED that Tariff related price jump will(eventually) stabilize.
Barely any new Jobs created but at the same time labor market has been constant/consistent mostly because of immigration policies. The unemployment rate is still at the 4.x%. The Supply and Demand side is basically in lock step- for now( basically no new jobs to fill but also less people fighting for the ones out there due to tighter immigration policies is creating that ‘balance’)
The current middle east crisis is the 3rd( technically 4th) price shock - and the oil shock has still not hit the current data that the Fed looks at, so future projections are a strong TBD. One of the reasons why the Fed was not able to reach the 2% target( in the past 5 years they were trying)- they dont seem to get a break from so many major shocks, and have to keep pivoting
The Last 3 were Covid, then the Ukraine war( oil shock during that time affected inflation numbers) and last year’s Tarrifs ( the Tariffs have been Passed on the consumer and core goods)
No stagflation and no where close to that at this time- so those conversations do not hold up for now
The 4th( current) shock will determine how the next reading(6 weeks from today) would be- and how long the war continues.
The positive narrative as of now- is the US economy is extremely resilient. Consumption numbers have not changed( as of today)
Stable prices and maximum employment are the 2 main mandates and its critical for the Fed to be independent to ensure those 2 areas can be managed appropriately and it is critical that continuous even after he leaves( Tentatively May 15th)
Higher productivity is causing the growth estimates( revised from 1.8 to mid 2%) to go up. This has been a trend for a few years now which was surprising to hear.The economy Grew in 2023 as well when the fastest rate hikes by fed were implemented as well( and there was a majority consensus that the US economy would go into recession- obviously it didnt)
Higher productivity is what causes incomes to rise. No proof that Gen Ai is causing this( for now)
4 major economic shocks in the past 6 years and the guy has sailed us through them all. ( well 4th is ongoing and he is out and wont see the end of that shock effect) is something that has never happened in the history of the country and is extremely commendable
He will most likely go down as one of the greatest Fed chairs we have ever seen( mostly because we should have been in a WAYY worse situation than what we currently are in- and thats a huge Positive for everyone of us in this sub)