No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
no investment thesis
Score6
Comments13
▶ Full Post Text
Most people screen for undervalued stocks backwards. They start with price and work toward quality. Flip it.
The filter funnel I use:
Universe (all stocks)
⬇
Filter: ROIC > 12% sustained 5+ years
⬇
Filter: positive and growing free cash flow
⬇
Filter: debt/equity not terrifying
⬇
Filter: identifiable competitive advantage
⬇
\~50 to 80 names survive
⬇
Run DCF with conservative inputs
⬇
Filter: 25%+ margin of safety
⬇
\~5 to 10 names worth researching
⬇
Read 10K, understand business model
⬇
Check insider buying activity
⬇
Final portfolio candidates
Each step eliminates most of the universe. That's the point. The quality filters do the heavy lifting before valuation even enters the picture.
The last signal I pay attention to is insider buying. Not selling (insiders sell for a million reasons). Open market purchases by executives using their own money. When the CFO drops $500k at current prices that tells me something no screen captures.