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TLDR: My nipples are sweaty at the discounts being given to certain software stocks
Hey everyone, I’ve been looking at the recent software sell-off and trying to separate the "falling knives" from the actual opportunities.
I’ve categorized the major players into 4 tiers based on their "economic moats", resilience to Anthrophic’s Claude, and how likely they are to be replaced by AI-generated software (Vibe Coding):
Tier 1: Foundational Infrastructure (The "Dividend Compounders")
Tier 2: Enterprise Backbone & Proprietary Data
Tier 3: Vertically Integrated Niche Players
Tier 4: Horizontal Tools (The "Hunger Games" Tier)
I’m personally dollar-cost averaging into a specific conglomerate right now, but I’m avoiding most of Tier 4 because the survival rate looks slim. And to be honest it’s really hard to say with full confidence who the winners will be.
I made a video breaking down exactly which stocks (Salesforce, Snowflake, Intuit, etc.) fall into which tier and why the "pay-per-result" model is the future.
Would love to hear your thoughts on which software stocks you think have the widest moats right now.
https://youtu.be/aoRdYtZ1Jt0?si=HtLyC8q25la5wIZp