Hertz Path to Dominance

u/NoMilk2281 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · February 19, 2026 at 01:49 · 💬 13 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Original Reddit post

Author presents a bullish case on Hertz, arguing improved operations, cash generation, and refinancing potential make its debt load manageable over a multi-year recovery.

HTZ — LONG The author claims Hertz has transformed since its 2020 bankruptcy, citing lower depreciation per unit, record utilization, higher revenue per unit, and over $1 billion in cash that reduce near-term bankruptcy risk. The causal improvement comes from used-car sales generating about $2,000 more per car than auction sales, debt maturities pushed to 2030, and Bill Ackman's backing, while Ackman reportedly believes tariffs and trade wars could raise used-car values and asset value. Catalysts include upcoming earnings, which the author does not expect to move the stock due to slow winter travel, and a hoped-for $1 billion EBITDA target for 2027 that the author thinks may be reached by 2028. The main stated risk is Hertz's high corporate debt, including roughly $500+ million in annual interest expense, court liability to old bondholders, and the need to refinance.

Hertz hopes to hit a 1 Billion EBITDA for 2027 while high hoping I think they can hit the goal by 2028.

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u/NoMilk2281 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Hertz improving operations, debt manageable, 2028 EBITDA goal
The author claims Hertz has transformed since its 2020 bankruptcy, citing lower depreciation per unit, record utilization, higher revenue per unit, and over $1 billion in cash that reduce near-term bankruptcy risk. The causal improvement comes from used-car sales generating about $2,000 more per car than auction sales, debt maturities pushed to 2030, and Bill Ackman's backing, while Ackman reportedly believes tariffs and trade wars could raise used-car values and asset value. Catalysts include upcoming earnings, which the author does not expect to move the stock due to slow winter travel, and a hoped-for $1 billion EBITDA target for 2027 that the author thinks may be reached by 2028. The main stated risk is Hertz's high corporate debt, including roughly $500+ million in annual interest expense, court liability to old bondholders, and the need to refinance.
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This Reddit post, published February 19, 2026, features u/NoMilk2281 discussing HTZ. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/NoMilk2281  · Tickers: HTZ